Hersh: Pimlico pick five play for Saturday, May 16

This is a very tough sequence. I considered narrowing opinions to a radical extent, trying something like a $20 play, but there are enough horses I actually like in the five races that I’ll take a swing with less of a lottery-style ticket. Only narrowing comes in race 11, The Very One, where I’ve got no backups behind three As, and in the Preakness, where – if this play is miraculously still alive – AMERICAN PHAROAH or FIRING LINE will have to get home.

Race 9 – Two things about the Gallorette: 1) There are interesting Euro imports, and 2) There is no speed, especially with Hard Not to Like (7) a race-day scratch. Who can possibly lead now? I’m throwing 30-1 morning-line shot OSCAR PARTY (12) in as a deep backup because she seems the most likely leader on a course that has been playing to speed. BOCAIUVA (1) has encouraging French form, is first-time Lasix, and when you see a horse finishing 10th, beaten three lengths, as was the case last out in her North American debut, rest assured that traffic was an issue. First-time U.S. MANGO DIVA (10) was beaten less than one length last June at Epsom by legit Group 1 horse Just The Judge, and if she adapts to U.S. racing, she will win this race. TOKEN OF LOVE (9) has less exciting overseas form, but trainer Graham Motion has a phenomenal record with first-time North American starters and is on fire this week. Hard Not to Like’s scratch moves her up to an “A.” The unspectacular WATSDACHANCES is the lone B.

Race 10 – Spreading. BLAME JIM (1) has two wins and a second in his sprints, and the loss came to Stanford, who almost won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Can he take back a bit from the rail? Hope so. HOLY BOSS (9) is outside all the other speed besides We Miss Anthony and probably is faster than We Miss Anthony. Gotten a nice breather since his Oaklawn stakes win. Those are the As. SENOR GRITS (4) has pick-up-the-pieces potential, and there’s no shame finishing second to the excellent Cinco Charlie. He’s the “B”. Big-figure New York maiden winner VICTORY IS SWEET (5) and quick turnaround GIMME DA LUTE (7) provide “C”-level coverage.

Race 11 – Like GOLDSTRYKE GLORY (7) as potential speed of the speed provided this firm course does not take rain Saturday, and cutting back to a five-furlong trip she’s rarely run, want her as an “A” at double-digit odds. AGELESS (2) and SHRINKING VIOLET (5) are the obvious top two betting choices. Three As and out.

Race 12 – In a perfect world, the ticket would have eight or so in the Dixie, but narrowing things as much as possible, though hate living with so many outside draws. There is little speed in the race, depending on how much early energy Skyring can muster. WAR CORRESPONDENT (13) was to be an “A” play, but he was a race-day scratch. I can’t use LONG ON VALUE (12) as a lone “A” and so will add War Correspondent’s stablemate CHAMOIS (15) into the “A” column. He was second in this race last year and has the pace to get into a good pressing spot despite the wider draw. MANCHURIAN HIGH (10) rallied into a slow pace to win the Laurel Turf Cup last year, but at this class level, a half-furlong farther would be better. He’s a “B,” and with the key scratch, I’ve also upgraded LEGENDARY (9) into the “B” column. I’m against UP WITH THE BIRDS but plugging into the “C” hole as insanity insurance.

Race 13 – Think Dortmund maxed out in the Derby and is the least likely of the big three to win, and that barring double duds from FIRING LINE (8) and AMERICAN PHAROAH (1), one of them wins. Picked Firing Line on top and will use at equal value with the odds-on favorite.

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