Hersh: Pick four play for Saratoga for Monday, Aug. 18

Late pick four, races 7-10

It’s not an easy sequence, and I don’t have a race with a lone “A.” If one were to go the caveman route and just use all As, the bet is just $18 for each 50-cent increment. I’ll probably fish a little wider.

Race 7

DYKER BEACH (#7) is the 7-5 morning-line choice in this $50,000 non-winners-of-two starter. He also hails from a cold barn, is 1 for 18 lifetime, with eight seconds, and is as liable to regress as to break through after three straight high-end performances that led to losses. Moreover, he’s a seven- to eight-furlong horse on paper, and he could easily get outquicked at this six-furlong trip even if he does fire. I’m tempted to take a total stand against but will just relegate to “B” status. TONY B (#5) was blinkers off for his first maiden-claimer last out and broke through in a big way. Not tagged now, and two works between starts: Repeat within range. D J MANLOVE (#6) positively entered following layoff after SoCal claim; 1 for 1 on dirt and could shake loose on the lead. Nos. 5 and 6 are As, and #2, the 1-12 ALYSARO, makes it as a B cutting back from seven furlongs.

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Race 8

Really wanted to make RED VINE (#1) a B at best. His two wins came when he made one run behind very fast splits, and he’s not getting that race shape here. It looks like another slow-paced slog, and he has a perfect record of hanging in that sort of heat. Yet two back he was well clear of North Star Boy, who returned to beat several of these in a July 19 race at this class level, and I just can’t rate him below the other two As. Those are PYRITE MOUNTAIN (#9), who was a head bob away from victory at this level while making his first start for Todd Pletcher last out, and INCHCAPE (#3), a 10-1 shot on the morning line who has been close in his four tries at this level and might appreciate the added ground. Tossing ARTIC NORTH (#7) in as a C; he’s blinkers on and likely on a clear lead off a last-start claim. Third in a Grade 2 earlier this year.

Race 9

AMBUSHER (#6) has a 2-for-19 career win mark, but only a handful of those starts came in routes. She’s worked twice since her decent fourth facing tougher foes in the muddy July 27 Shuvee. She’s an A, as is ZUCCHINI FLOWER (#2), though she’s a touch suspect at the distance. Can see trainer Chad Brown gave ENDLESS CHATTER (#1) time after her career-best speed figure July 5, and she’s likely to run her race, but not sure the Parx N2X win over five foes will quite get it done here. NATALIE VICTORIA (#5) clearly will be on a speed mission and obviously could lead all the way, but her nine-furlong win came with a slow pace on Aqueduct’s inner track over the winter, and the guess is there will at least be some anxious moments in deep stretch today. The latter two are Bs.

Race 10

Pretty deep $65,000 maiden-claiming turf route, which is what you get with a $54,000 purse much higher than most track’s maiden special weight offerings. Callans Candy and Wall Street Kitten scare me, but hoping that one of the big three MSW droppers, HURRICANE TURN (#4), SUMMATION TIME (#5), and LOVES LAST CHANCE (#6), will get it done. Loves Last Chance’s third behind Gala Award this past winter at Gulfstream Park would probably suffice, yet he’s likely the longest price of the trio. Go, Love!