Hersh: Looking for value in Met Mile

Palace Malice is the best horse in the Metropolitan Handicap. Moreover, he loves Belmont Park and showed in the Westchester – albeit against foes who had basically zero chance to beat him – that this one-turn-mile thing is a go. There was much wailing and gnashing of teeth – and, I would assume, a rising of the morning-line to 8-5 – when Palace Malice drew post 1, with trainer Todd Pletcher expressing acute disappointment.

On raw post position stats alone, the draw really is not bad: In the last 10 years, post 1 in one-mile Belmont dirt races has gone 188 for 1, 146, a strike rate of 16-percent, and during that period, no post save 11 (7 for 39) has produced a higher percentage of one-mile winners.

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The issue, evidently, is that Palace Malice is a presser-stalker kind of runner at this distance, and he is not going to get his ideal journey from the rail. In Goldencents, Broadway Empire, and perhaps Moreno, there’s serious speed to his outside, and Palace Malice risks getting sawed off, shuffled back, stuck in traffic – all sorts of nasty stuff.

Is he good enough to overcome? Probably. But Palace Malice is nowhere near as appealing at a short price now as if he had drawn a cozy midfield post. And if not Palace Malice, than this Metropolitan really opens up.

Normandy Invasion has often been overbet and was ridiculously heavily favored over Palace Malice in the New Orleans Handicap, but his price might be square enough Saturday. He has been pointed for this race since being scratched several days before the Churchill Downs Handicap with a minor issue, and has since turned in a string of encouraging drills over the training track at Saratoga. With post 9, Normandy Invasion has the sort of draw that would have been perfect for Palace Malice, and he’s the one in line for a great stalking trip.

There are several competent closers, but I narrowly prefer Central Banker, who has shown serious signs since last summer, and seems to be developing strongly this spring. He was powerful and game in the Churchill Downs, and his pattern suggests potential improvement again Saturday. He has enough pace not to fall out the back door even if the fractions, as seem likely, are hot.

I rate Shakin It Up a small notch below Central Banker – but only a small notch, and his wide draw should not be a deal-breaker given the likely race shape.

Clearly Now seems to have a small but loyal and vocal legion of supporters, but he has never broken through against really good competition like this.

On one hand, the turn back in distance seems like it could suit Moreno, but his speed might in the end prove more effective in two-turn races, though he did run well at 1 1/16 miles at Belmont last year. But he will want to stay close, and Goldencents, who is a very good horse but super-ambitiously spotted for his seasonal debut, is going to seriously test anyone who sticks with him.

It’s a superb field, a fascinating challenge, and Palace Malice’s draw has opened the door to value.