Hersh: Kentucky Derby Day pick five play

Hard to resist any sequence landing on the Kentucky Derby, isn’t it? And at a 50-cent base bet, the pick five encompassing races 7 to 11 and landing on the Derby seems – before it unfolds, at least – fairly manageable for a player on a budget.
Let’s go race by race.

RACE 7
Looks like a free square to me. JUDY THE BEAUTY (8) is the best horse in the race, fired fresh last spring, and, from the look of her work pattern, seems hardly ready to call it a career at age 6. If she goes about her business, she wins. SWEET REASON (1) didn’t show her best against Judy the Beauty in the Breeders’ Cup, but fair to wonder if she does here either, breaking from post 1 in first start of the year. Tiniest backup as a lone “C.”

RACE 8
LADY LARA (4) looks for real, and if one thinks COFFEE CLIQUE (5) is going to improve off her 2015 bow, in which Lady Lara beat here, can’t Lady Lara do the same? Fairly high degree of confidence, but SANDIVA (8) is in good enough form to earn “B” status over a couple of deep Cs, I’M ALREADY SEXY (6) and WATER HOLE (11). Not sold on the latter, but do you want to have four out of five in the pick five and explain how you left the Chad Brown Euro import out entirely? Me either.

RACE 9
BAYERN (2) might be definitively favored over PRIVATE ZONE (4), but I’m not convinced the former is better than the latter at this seven-furlong trip. Equal play. We know PANTS ON FIRE, despite his good form, isn’t quite good enough – don’t we? Toss in as a C.

RACE 10
Think STEPHANIE’S KITTEN (8) is the most likely winner here. Loved her Tampa Bay Downs win as much as she loves the Churchill Downs lawn (3-for-3 record). Thought she was on the way out at this time last year. Now think she’s as good as she’s ever been. Little break in weights and best trip. CHOCOLATE RIDE (10) has been so good to me this year, I can’t not put him on top. You say he was looking for the wire in winning the Muniz last out? I say look at how fast his interior fractions were. Absolutely does not need the lead and will be underrated again. UMBIYO (3) is just good enough to win on his very best. SEEK AGAIN (9) almost beat Wise Dan in this race last year, but his layoff is longer this time. Those two are the Bs. JACK MILTON (7) just ran his peak race. SLUMBER (11) hasn’t won since the Jazz Age. Nine furlongs is a touch too far for GRAND ARCH (12).

RACE 11
I picked AMERICAN PHAROAH (18) fourth in DRF 1-2-3-4 selections, but I still want him on top in this bet. DORTMUND (8) as well. CARPE DIEM (2) has done nothing wrong this year, and there is not unanimity among speed-figure makers regarding the Blue Grass number. Looks excellent this week. Lone B. MUBTAAHIJ (6) might not be good enough to win, but I think he will run his race, get a good trip, and who knows? Not all that high on FROSTED (15), but perhaps his new style of taking back and making one run is what he needed all along. UPSTART (19) is getting about zero love and was 42-1 in Derby betting Friday evening. Has a great foundation, hit the ground running in training this week, and has a chance.

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Race 7
A: 8
B: none
C: 1

Race 8
A: 4,5
B: 8
C: 6,11

Race 9
A: 2,4
B: none
C: 5

Race 10
A: 8, 10
B: 3, 9, 12
C: 7, 11

Race 11
A: 8, 18
B: 2
C: 6,15,19

In 50-cent increments, this is a $90 play going all As, As with one B, As with 2 Bs, and As with one C. More than I would spend on a normal multi-race play. But this is no normal day.