Hersh: Keeneland Pick Three Play for Sunday, October 12

Tricky day to string together sequential opinions with an already yielding turf course and the significant threat of more rain starting at 2:00 p.m. This ticket assumes the track stays fast and the grass race in the sequence remains on turf.

Wanted to target the late pick four, but race 9 is such a crapshoot that the ticket was coming in close to $100 even trimmed, and that kind of investment with this sort of weather / surface uncertainty seemed imprudent. So I lopped off what seemed the trickiest race in the sequence and went with this races 6-7-8 pick three. All As could be pushed another time or two at $8 a pop. Race 6: I pick and play a lot of first-time starters, but the As here are 2nd-timers HOTTAP (#4) and SKY HERO (#7). The former was bet way down on debut over the summer at CD, and fact he just now races again after that flop suggests something (on the order of shins, I’d guess) went amiss in that start. Airtight Asmussen work pattern for comeback. Sky Hero was beaten less than a length on debut after racing somewhat green & would need only moderate forward progress to contend. As for the Bs, wonder if Pletcher 1st-timer OLD MOUNTAIN LANE (#2) is quick enough for what becomes an inside draw with the scratch of the rail horse, and if he isn’t ultimately intended for grass. Two other 1sters and Lukas-trained bomber WILL DID IT (#11) make the ticket.

Race 7: NICKLAUS WAY (#8) drops in class after a very nice second between two good horses last out at CD but remains above high-end claim price paid four starts ago. It’s a really positive pattern for ace claiming outfit. SCHIVARELLI (#10) stands a decent chance of delivering on the promise he showed this past spring. The barn has been going well for several weeks, wins with layoff comebackers, and has gotten encouraging-looking works into this horse. PERILOUS INDIAN (#5) has run 1-turn races good enough to contend & has recent excuses. He’s the one B, with two C’s as backups.

Race 8: EMOTIONAL KITTEN (#1) & KEPI (#2) look not only the most likely winners to me, but the most likely to handle a wet course. KITTEN didn’t seem to really want 11 furlongs last out, while KEPI didn’t run her race at Euro-style Kentucky Downs. HONEY HUES (#4) is a front-end threat but my guess is she wants it firmer, not softer. ROSEE IS COZEE (#8) got the wrong trip last out at KD & ran well enough two & three starts back to sneak into a win with luck.