Hersh: Keeneland pick four play for Sunday, Oct. 11
Stakes-less Sunday card ends with four tough ones, but I will try a 50-cent pick four on races 6-9 as well as making a straight play on TIZ A CURVE (#7) in race 6.
Tiz a Curve is trained by Ian Wilkes, whose debut runners basically are best ignored. It’s not in the Wilkes program to train a horse to win first up, but they very often make great strides second out, and there was enough of a glimmer from this horse’s first start to suggest he has room to improve. The long one-turn trip looks like a good fit developmentally off a steady closing mid-pack run going six furlongs, and the fast five-furlong breeze following that first race often is a tell-tale sign from this outfit of a horse from whom more can be expected.
I don’t see a lot in this 2-year-old maiden race, and if morning-line 2-1 favorite SILVERTOWN (2) wins, it’s probably just not a very good heat, and I lose. Will back up Tiz A Curve with GLOBAL ENTRY (10), who has notably fast drills for capable debut barn, and SYNCHRONY (11), who didn’t have a great debut trip and finished steadily for second behind a runaway winner.
Race 7 – Using six horses, with MISTER MAESTRO (2), MISSION DRIVEN (4), and PEP THE CHAMP (9) the “A” plays. Mister Maestro is a price and looks faster to the lead than his primary on-paper speed rival, WINTER’S GIFT (6), who is a “B” play. Mission Driven will be favored but figures to struggle to get up at this one-mile trip. Pep the Champ off a Joe Sharp claim, and fast enough with right trip.
Race 8 – HAZARDS OF LOVE (5) at 9-5 is only a “ B” play. He’s an admirable aging horse who has won fresh before, but this was the very top of his class range before a little break, and he’s not getting any younger. EAGLE (6) was too short a price last out in sprint comeback surely a stepping-stone to this route. He’s supposed to improve. All-turf ZAMBIAN DREAM (8) popped a near-bullet five furlongs main-track Keeneland drill and winds up in dirt debut for Todd Pletcher. Slight chance of pace meltdown so using KING OF NEW YORK (1) as a “C.”
Race 9 – QUEEN OF SCAT (4), QUEENIE’S SONG (6), and NANCY RIDE (7) will have to do it in a race where I would prefer going deeper.
:: See Marcus Hersh’s pick four play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets