Hersh: Keeneland pick four play for Saturday, Oct. 3

The weather precludes forming strong opinions on Keeneland’s Saturday card. Friday’s races were off turf, and if Saturday’s stay on – and I’m guessing they do – the going seems likely to be soft. Many horses won’t handle that, and with more rain in the forecast, the main track is likely sloppy again, further complicating matters.

So, how I’d play is – cautiously. What I’ll play, for the purposes of this piece, is the all-stakes pick four spanning races six through nine.

Race 6 – Thoroughbred Club of America

On fast going, I’d single LEIGH COURT (5) and leave it at that. The filly who beat her over 6 1/2 furlongs at Presque Isle loves the Tapeta there, and in hindsight, a straight three-quarters might be best for Leigh Court. She won this race last year, and the mare that would be her main rival, JUDY THE BEAUTY (3) has appeared to be running on fumes throughout her 6-year-old campaign. Leigh Court is bred decently for mud, but we just don’t know, so I’ll use Judy the Beauty as a backup and throw in FIORETTI (7) for further coverage. She trips out decently turning back from an Ellis mile and has an excellent wet-track pedigree. I want no part of Sweet Whiskey (4).

Race 7 – First Lady

Give me the two Aidan O’Brien’s, EASTER (5) and OUTSTANDING (7), and top U.S. hope TEPIN (11) and I hope to get through. Outstanding will be the longer price of the O’Brien pair, but she beat Easter before her solid Belmont Oaks run and should benefit turning back to a mile. With speed to spread the field in front of her, Tepin can drop in for decent position, despite a poor draw, and enters this race in top form – though hopefully not over-the-top form.

Race 8 – Breeders’ Futurity

EXAGGERATOR (7) showed a nose for the wire winning two sprints he should have lost and was much the best in his Saratoga stakes score after a difficult inside trip. He runs like he wants to go long, is bred to go long, and lands in a race he should absolutely win if he can go long. Single.

Race 9 – Shadwell Turf Mile

I like DUTCH CONNECTION (5) best, but his connections might have shipped from England looking for good ground they aren’t going to find. Also, if one wanted to quibble, Toormore, his vanquisher last time, is a second-tier Euro miler – though that is saying something by North American standards. GRAND ARCH (4) is the other A. There are everal pace factors lined up, a plus for him; he loves Keeneland and has run well on a wet course at the venue. TOURIST (12) is against the likely race shape and might well want it firm, but he brims with upside and was so powerful at Kentucky Downs. JACK MILTON, with Tourist the two Bs, is 2 for 2 at Keeneland and can handle wet. So can THE PIZZA MAN, who is a C on the ticket, and if the pace gets crazy-demanding early and middle, this pure prep for the Breeders’ Cup Turf could end in an upset for him.
It’s a $21 ticket playing all the combinations at the 50-cent base, so I’ll probably hit the all-As button at least once more.

:: See Marcus Hersh’s pick three play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets