Hersh: How I'll play Saratoga for Sunday, Aug. 6

Can’t get any handle on Saratoga's race 1, a $12.5K claimer packed with droppers, so the pick five is out. And there are races in the later pick fours (6-9 and 8-11) that stop me. But the early pick four on races 2 through 5 looks potentially manageable, and I’ll take a swing at that, though I don’t love any single horse in the sequence.

Here’s the ticket I’ll play (caveman style today). It’s $60 per 50-cent increment:

Race 2 – 1,2,4,5,6

Race 3 – 3,6

Race 4 – 5,7,10

Race 5 – 2,4,7,8

** Race 2 is 2-year-old maidens going a turf route. ESCAPADE (#2) and WILD AND FUNNY (#4) both turned in solid sprint debuts, and there’s no way I’d feel comfortable leaving out either, as both look well-meant today.

That said, there are three first-timers whom I have to include. GOLDEN ORB (#5) debuts for Christophe Clement, who, DRF Formulator shows, is 10-3-1-2 with a $6.34 ROI the last five years with 2-year-olds firsters in turf routes at Saratoga. That’s strong stuff, as is a pertinent stat for trainer Brad Cox, who sends debuting EMMPORT (#6). Cox has won with one of two 2-year-old turf-route firsters at Saratoga, but at all tracks with runners like that the last five years he has gone 19-7-2-2 with a $4.56 ROI. Lastly, DADDY IS A LEGEND (#1) has been working locally since roughly the beginning of time for this, and trainer George Weaver won a 2-year-old turf route maiden just last summer using this rider on a first-timer. Not a ton of turf pedigree or substance at all from dam, but sire Scat Daddy is a plus.

** Race 3 is the Alydar Stakes, restricted to horses without a stakes win this year. Breaking Lucky ran Saturday in the Whitney, leaving RALLY CRY (#6) as the likely strong favorite. I’m not as sold on this horse’s quality as his short odds are going to suggest, but he does look the controlling speed in a short field, and a peek at Todd Pletcher’s pertinent numbers is revealing. With older horses (4 and up) going off at less than 2-1 in Saratoga dirt races following a layoff between 45 and 90 days, Pletcher the last five years has gone 12-7-1-2. That’s a lot of hits.

All that said, Mo Tom (#3) can win this at a much better price than Rally Cry. Had his last start at Indiana been at this nine-furlong trip, Mo Tom might well have won, and he already has been flattered by Fear the Cowboy, who returned yesterday with a comfortable victory in a $200,000 race at Mountaineer, and Eagle, who won that race, has been a Grade 2-type horse when on his game in the past. Hesitate to leave out Conquest Windycity, and deeper pockets might use him somehow.

** Race 4 is for New York-bred maiden turf routers, and APPEALING BRIEFS (#5) should be favored but won’t be since Chad Brown starts FOLLOW THE SIGNS (#10). Appealing Briefs at first glance looks like a hanging type best avoided, but he’s only gotten two tries in New York-bred turf routes like this, and was been beaten a half-length and a head in those races, both with trips far less than ideal. Competitive showings in open MSW competition, as well. HOBOE (#7), however, also holds some appeal, and at a longer price. He followed Appealing Briefs home in their common last start and with just two grass tries, both encouraging, is not at all exposed. Follow the Signs has twice been rained off grass and should like it, and I won’t let him beat me out of this ticket while hoping one of the other two prevail. The omission is Summer Mischief, whose turf sprint last out pretty much fell apart and on pedigree is no cinch to want to route.

** Race 5 is more NY-breds on turf, this a second-level sprint allowance. I’ll try four of them here, leaving out shorter price Startwithsilver since he’s had seven chances now to clear this condition, and this particular race doesn’t seem unusually soft for the level. COZZY SPRING (#2) is first turf but the dam was a capable grass sprinter, and the horse is obviously in cracking form. SISTER SOPHIA (#4) ought to be a price. She’s pace-dependant and has checkered form, but missed by a nose at this level and distance two summers ago, and has been working locally for a comeback run since June. FIRE KEY (#7) might be just 2-12 lifetime wins but is 7-2-2-0 on grass, and even better in his turf races at six furlongs. The July 15 Belmont race could have him set to peak today. ANOTHER GENIUS (#8) is like Sister Sophia back from a long break, but this barn excels with such comeback runners, and the filly, 2 for 2 in sprints, was a course and distance debut winner last summer.

There’s one other horse I’ll play later on the card, MISS SMARTY SMART (#7, 12-1) in race 6. She’s a first-time-starting 2-year-old who put together an encouraging work pattern at Fair Hill before getting in one final drill over the local surface. She’s by Congrats, whom I like with 2-year-old sprinters, and her dam finished second by a nose going six furlongs in her debut. Trainer Trombetta is capable with 2-year-olds and first-timers, and the only first-time-starting 2-year-old he sent to Saratoga last summer, Beautiful Night Sky, was third at odds of 11-1.