Hersh: How I’ll play Saratoga on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2019

Four stand-alone plays on the final Saturday card at Saratoga and a swing at the late pick five.

Race 4

It’s hard to overstate how talented a South African 2-year-old of 2017 MUSTAAQEEM (#8) was. Awesome form. Now, he had bone chips removed from his knee between ages 2 and 3. He lost his comeback run at odds-on but ran all right over a course with give in the ground, and a bit of research reveals that his big flop in a Group 3 sprint second time back had nothing to do with knees and everything to do with bleeding. Bleeding is a no-go in South Africa, and trainer Mike de Kock speculated Mustaaqeem’s career might be over. Instead, he showed up earlier this year with trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and has not, from the appearance of his all-weather Greentree work pattern, missed a beat this summer. Obviously, the Lasix is key here, and if he comes back anywhere near his top South African form, he’ll be difficult to beat.
$20 to win No. 8

Race 10

Here’s another first-Lasix horse, MRS. SIPPY (#5), and from the look of the way her form fell apart earlier this year, she might have been bleeding overseas. No doubt she stays the trip, and I think her best performances in 2018 are better than anything in the Glens Falls – with the possible exception of Santa Monica – has ever put up.
$20 to win No. 5

Race 11

Against Yoshida in the Woodward and very much with TOM’S D’ETAT (#9). Saratoga lover has a good draw and was geared down running his local mark to 3 for 3 in a restricted stakes prep for this. Trainer Al Stall said this week that the lightly-raced 6-year-old, who has been talented from the start, has put his physical issues behind, and from the way he was moving last time, that seems right.
$20 to win No. 9

Race 12

Maybe favored Free Enterprise just rolls these, but it can be worth looking hard at fast-working Kiaran McLaughlin-trained first-timers, despite his generally low strike rate with debuting horses like TOLERANT (#4). This horse looks fast and ready to roll, and with Free Enterprise and perhaps Airtouch taking play, his price should come up square enough to play.
$20 to win No. 4

Race 8 – 50-cent late pick five

Playing, but not sure what approach to take with this yet. If the bankroll is healthy, in goes the full banana ticket using the ABC structure outlined below. If it’s skimpy, a $32 straight ticket at the $1 level will have to suffice.
Was going to single Mrs. Sippy (#5) in race 10 but a strong Santa Monica DRF Clocker Workout Report has me using her. Backup for Tom’s d’Etat in the Woodward and viewing race 9, a first-level filly-and-mare dirt-sprint allowance, as the most chaotic of these races.

Race 8
A: 3,4
B: X
C: 1,5,8

Race 9
A: 1,3,8,11
B: 7
C: 4,10

Race 10
A: 4,5
B: X
C: X

Race 11
A: 9
B: 5
C: 1,8

Race 12
A: 4,8
B: 1,5
C: X

$164 ticket total (ABC) $32 for $1 all As
All A: 3,4 w 1,3,8,11 w 4,5 w 9 w 4,8
ABAAA: 3,4 w 7 w 4,5 w 9 w 4,8
AAABA: 3,4 w 1,3,8,11 w 4,5 w 5 w 4,8
AAAAB: 3,4 w 1,3,8,11 w 4,5 w 9 w 1,5
ABABA: 3,4 w 7 w 4,5 w 5 w 4,8
ABAAB: 3,4 w 7 w 4,5 w 5 w 1,5
AAABB: 3,4 w 1,3,8,11 w 4,5 w 5 w 1,5
CAAAA: 1,2,5,8 w 1,3,8,11 w 4,5 w 9 w 4,8
ACAAA: 3,4 w 1,5 w 4,5 w 9 w 4,8
AAACA: 3,4 w 1,3,8,11 w 4,5 w 1,8 w 4,8