Hersh: How I'll play Santa Anita for Sunday, Oct. 21

Not a lot of meat on this Sunday card at Santa Anita. No single horse appeals to me and both pick four sequences intersperse short fields and inscrutable collections of horses. There’s barely more than zero chance for a robust payoff in the early pick four, but at least I feel like I can manage that sequence better than the late one. So here goes.

Pick four races 2-5
Race 2
Wow. The horses with experience in this $30K maiden look slow – but the firsters might look even slower. If you trust JUST HIT PLAY (#2) to see things out at this 6-furlong trip, more power to you. I’m using four As, two Bs, and a C and hoping for a surprise.

Race 3
Horse shortage, anyone? One scratch and so down to just four runners in this $50K maiden-claiming mile. SENSIBLE THOUGHTS (#2) could be loose, but professional maiden TEQUILA SUNRISE (#5) ought to get a much better run at it than last out. The other two look lesser but they get included as “C” plays.

Race 4
Most depth here in the sequence. CHASIN LUCAS (#9) has enough turf in the pedigree for me to think surface switch can work and her speed lands in a relatively paceless down-the-hill sprint. She’s an A, as is the apparently well-meant and capable BATIQUITOS (#3). SHYLOCK EDDIE (#1), off the claim, might find the trip suitable in her first try at it. ROLLING SHADOW (#7) still has a whiff of upside and might like the shorter distance better than it appears on first blush.

Race 5
STREET CLASS (#1) is one of three here with blinkers on, which is unusual. Already beat the principal on-paper rivals and has more latitude to improve then they and thus is a single.

PICK FOUR PLAY
Here’s a link to the play in DRF Ticketmaker, through which you can wager directly into DRF Bets: http://bit.ly/2EBxylN

All A ticket for $2
All other combinations for 50 cents
Total cost: $58

Race 2
A: 2,4,6,7
B: 1,5
C: 3
Race 3
A: 2,5
B: None
C: 1,3
Race 4
A: 3, 9
B: 1,7
Race 5
A: 1