Hersh: How I'll play Santa Anita for Sunday, March 4

A paucity of entries in the Santa Anita card’s first five races Sunday leads me to the last four on the card. I’ll try a pick four on races 6 through 9, and play some vertical exotics in race 6. I’m singling ACHIRA (#4) in race 9 and leaning heavily on TEQUILA JOE (#1) in race 6.

In Race 6, Tequila Joe drops out of graded stakes, but I don’t really have a problem with him running for the $62,500 tag since this seems more a case of connections getting realistic than a red flag on the horse. The Keeneland turf is a specialist’s course, but he did stay 9 1/2 furlongs there. I also have an “anti” opinion in this race, and will try to run 5-2 morning-line favorite MAESTRO DEARTE (#3) out of the exacta. He’s won two in a row, and while I don’t want to say the horse was lucky . . . he seems to have been fairly lucky.

LIFELINE (#4) beat the Maestro in April 2017 and already has won over this trip. RONALD R (#5) makes only his third start since being imported from England, is a 4-year-old with upside, and quietly got a very fast final quarter-mile behind a slow pace last out. Those are the two “Bs” in the pick four, exacta partners with Tequila Joe, and the only two horses I’ll use in a trifecta keying my top selection.

Going forward in the pick four, BROOME (#7) will be part of most tickets playing the sequence, and while she’s an A for me, and the turn back to 5 1/2 furlongs almost certainly helps, I still can’t trust her. SENSIBLE MYTH (#2) need only transfer her turf form to dirt to be every bit as plausible as Broome and first-timer HOT AUTUMN (#4) if nothing else looks quite quick. I’ll take two more as “Bs” in a race that to me is the second-most chaotic in the sequence.

Easily the least discernible of the four races, from my perspective, is the eighth. Just look at the three favorites:

MESA SKY (#2) was claimed for $20K when last seen in November and returns for $6,250. IRON ROB (#5) also a $20K claim two back, was flat running back for $16K, and now also plunges to $6,250.

LAMBO LUXX (#4) is the 5-2 morning-line favorite, has the right stalking style for what ought to be a fast-paced heat, and is entirely logical, but a $6,250 claim out of his last race was voided, and in August he was pulled up and didn’t start for two months. So – yeah.

Then you get to PULMARACK (#6), who never wins and isn’t even in good form, and FOUR GAELS (#8), who really wants no part of anything beyond 5 1/2 furlongs but at least has been performing well, which could go a long way in this spot. Four As, 3 Bs, and a C – in other words, a smarter variety of the “all” button.

It’s healthy to be skeptical of horses climbing the allowance ladder after a win, but I’m biting on Achira in race 9, a first-level turf race at nine furlongs. The race is populated nearly entirely by fillies who are very much exposed, and with three starts, she’s the one with all the upside. Lacked positional speed in her two starts last year, but she sure had it in her last-start comeback run, tracking a strong pace, making an early move, then finishing with good energy to put away 6-5 favorite Lady Mamba. On pedigree alone one might wonder about today’s distance, but she sure looked last time like she’ll stay, and beyond the surface there is ample stamina in her bloodlines.

Here’s a link to a $54 pick four play (all 50-cents except a $1 all As ticket) in Daily Racing Form’s invaluable Ticketmaker, from which you can wager directly into your DRF Bets account, a really convenient function:
http://bit.ly/2tcjut4

Here’s how I split up the A-B-Cs in the races, as well:

Race 6
A: 1
B: 4,5

Race 7
A: 2,4,7
B: 3,5

Race 8
A: 2,4,5,8
B: 1,6,7
C: 3

Race 9
A: 4
B: none
C: none

And here’s the race 6 verticals play:
Race 6
$2 tri 1 with 4,5 with all $24
$8 ex 4,5 with 1 $16
$4 exacta box 4-5 $8
$3 exacta 1 with 2,6,7,8 $12