Hersh: How I'll play Gulfstream on Saturday, Dec. 22, 2018
I’ll get involved in the late pick four (races 8-11) at Gulfstream today, a sequence comprised of large, relatively competitive fields.
The shape I see the play is middle, spread, spread, narrow, with Race Me Home (#1) the key horse in race 11.
Race 8, a first-level turf-sprint filly-and-mare allowance, has some rough edges, but I’ll keep things to three A’s and a B. Tap Tap Taparoo (#2) is 6-1 on the morning line, appears to have a very solid win chance on firm going, and would be a nice A to start things off. R Happy Ending (#1) and Curluck (#8) are the other A’s, with Lenamarie (#7) a deep-closing backup.
Like Krampus (#3) best in race 9, a third-level turf-route allowance, but Bricks and Mortar (#10) was a serious horse pre-layoff and won over the local course. Zennor (#1) and Mr. Cub (#5) are viable B’s, the latter at a decent price. With a couple pace players scratched, Jay’s Way (#12) could shake loose at a very long price.
I make no pretense of understanding the featured Mr. Prospector. Three A’s, with Wild Shot (#7) clearly the preferred option as fourth or fifth choice. Spreading wide here with two B’s and two C’s. Conquest Big E was the last drop; decided with so much other pace, he has no avenue to victory.
Aforementioned Race Me Home looks a potential standout (4-1 morning line feels considerably off to me) in the nightcap. Of course, he’s drawn on the rail in a bulky field, and it’s a turf race, so I’ll take one backup at a price, King of Spades (#9), who will get first run on the favorite, stays the trip, and just was maneuvered into continued eligibility at this starter-allowance class.
Race 8
A: 1,2,8
B: 7
Race 9
A: 3, 10
B: 1,5
C: 12
Race 10
A: 7,8,11
B: 2,6
C: 1,3
Race 11
A: 1
B: 9
A 50-cent play using all A’s, all A’s with one B, all A’s with two B’s, and all A’s with one C = $75.50.
Second 50-cent ticket using all A’s = $9.
Total cost = $84.50.
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