Hersh: How I'll play Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Feb. 10
An appealing 12-race card at Gulfstream today, and I’ll focus on the back third, starting with race 9, since I have opinions in that race and in race 10.
Race 9, the Gulfstream Park Turf, is a Grade 1 that hardly has a field of international renown, but that’s the way winter turf racing in North America tends to shake out. HEART TO HEART (#1) is the most proven Grade 1 type in the bunch and is the 5-2 morning-line favorite, while MONEY MULTIPLIER (#5) is the shortest price at 3-1 on the line among three Chad Brown-trained entrants.
I don’t like either of those horses to win. Heart to Heart obviously has an excuse for his last, but the horse is 7, and he will have to slip a bit at some point. Money Multiplier got off to a rousing start when late to begin his 2017 campaign but sputtered thereafter and reportedly is being pointed to a race in Qatar later this month.
I like the Brown-trained KURILOV (#3) and the Todd Pletcher-trained HI HAPPY (#4). Kurilov was a Grade 1 winner on dirt in Chile but showed sufficient talent on turf, worked recently on turf, and might in the end be just as good on turf. At this point, we can probably assume Brown knows what a turf horse looks like.
Hi Happy is another South American import, and his form before importation is substantially stronger, especially on turf, where he won the San Carlos Pelligrini in Argentina, albeit way back in 2015. He’s starting for the first time for Pletcher, whose long-layoff comeback numbers are off the charts.
For late-pick-four purposes, I’ll also use CHANNEL MAKER (#8), who ended his 3-year-old season running into the buzz saw Mo Town in the Hollywood Derby and could have more to give this year. But in a race 9 trifecta, I’ll stick with the two South American imports in the top slot.
In race 10, I’ll play another Brown horse, DREAM AWHILE (#7), to win even if she is, say, half the listed 10-1 odds. This French import won at 8 1/2 furlongs last out with a good kick and should be better at this nine-furlong trip. For pick-four purposes, the very logical KITTEN’S ROAR (#9) makes the ticket despite and outside draw.
Race 11 has a huge field of 3-year-old N1X turf allowance horses, but I’ll try to get back with two who I expect to be off a strong early and middle pace, YEAR OF THE KITTEN (#3) and EYE OF THE JEDI (#4). Race 12 has three “logical” horses whom I’ll press twice in the pick four, but on one 50-cent ticket, I will spread wide here and hope for a price.
Best of luck with your plays.
RACE 9
$1 trifecta
3,4 with 3,4,5,8 with 1,2,3,4,5,7,8
total cost: $30
50-cent pick four
3,4,8 with 7,9 with 3,4 with 2,3,5,6,7,8,11,12
total cost: $48
$1 pick four
3,4 with 7,9 with 3,4 with 6,8,12
total cost: $24
RACE 10
$20 to win 7
