Hersh: How I'll play Del Mar on Sunday, Sept. 3

Race 2, a California-bred N1X turf sprint, looks interesting. Enough real speed appears signed on that I think we can forecast a legitimate, quick tempo and a fairly truly run race. JET SET MAN (#9) is the 5-2 morning-line choice and does have solid, contending form. He also is a neck away from being a six-race maiden, was convincingly beaten into second at this level and distance last out, and does not, to my mind, have lot of room to improve today.

Watch enough fast-paced turf sprints, and you see that relying on real closers getting home is dicey; better to find a capable second-flight horse who will pounce on the pace and get first run on those at the back. And in this race, PLATE SIDE (#7) could be that horse. Four races into his career, he appears still to be a work in progress, with blinkers added and removed and a route try last time. He had a lousy draw in that one-mile race and ran pretty well, and I’m going to guess he puts it all together today, gets the right trip, and wins this race as no better than the third choice.

My second tier consists of three horses in addition to the favorite, with ANATOLIAN HEAT (#10) at the top of the list. He’s not exposed in short grass races, and one of the best races of his career came going five furlongs at Del Mar. ULTRA FAME (#3) and INFORMALITY (#4) are both off the claim and being switched to turf sprints with some upside and potentially favorable trips into the race flow, probably at double-digit odds.

$1 trifecta ($14) – 7 with 9,10 with 1,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
$2 trifecta ($12) – 7 with 9,10 with 3,4,9,10
$1 trifecta ($12) – 7 with 3,4,9,10 with 3,4,9,10
$2 exacta ($4) – 3,4 with 7
$3 exacta ($3) – 10 with 7
$10 exacta ($10) – 9 with 7

The late pick four (races 7-10) includes large, competitive fields, and I’ll take a caveman swing at this play, though the final leg is basically impossible. Race 10 has 10 2-year-old maidens going two turns on turf, two of whom have actually started in a horse race. If I were braver, I could halve the cost of the play by singling TRUSTWORTHY (#9) in race 9. He’s the perfect horse for these $50,000 N2L starter races, a lightly raced blowout maiden winner for a price close to the condition’s maximum. But I’m not feeling braver.

50-cent pick four ($54 ticket):
Race 7: 1,3,4
Race 8: 2,3,5
Race 9: 3,9
Race 10: 1,2,6,7,8,9