Hersh: How I'll play Del Mar on Sunday, Nov. 26

Let’s start with race 3, the Seabiscuit Handicap. OM (#2) is the 2-1 morning-line favorite, which is fine because Om is a really nice horse in solid enough form. Would I trust him to beat a decent bunch like this going as far as 1 1/16 miles? Gosh, no.

PEE WEE REESE (#7) is the 5-2 morning-line second choice. Did he emerge as a very promising turf miler last spring? He sure did! But Pee Wee has exactly one win, over Om, in fact, that says we can count on him to win this race, and that win came at Santa Anita, a course that generally is kinder to his front-running style than Del Mar.

MR. ROARY (#1) has form that’s kind of all over the place, but he had trouble in the BC Mile and at his best can win this. HUNT (#6) might just be over the top – or he just might need the cutback in distance. Those are the two I’ll key in trifectas. Just in case I’m right about the favorites not winning but wrong about Mr. Roary and Hunt, I’ll take one backup trifecta that has HE WILL (#4) winning.

There is $62 worth of plays here:

(trifecta: $16 per 50 cents)
1,6
1,2,4,6,7
1,2,4,6,7,8

(trifecta: $12 per 50 cents)
1,6
1,2,4,6,7
1,2,4,6,7

(trifecta: $24 per $2)
1,6
1,2,6,7
1,2,6,7

(trifecta: $6 per $1)
4
1,6,
1,2,6,7

On to race 6. Not a huge fan of pick threes, but the two horses I like late in the card, FIZZY FRIDAY (#1 in race 6) and HAWKSMOOR (#10 in race 8) are only part of a pick three, not a pick four. Fizzy Friday didn’t fire last out in the Valley View, but the Keeneland course was really in rough shape, and surely a lot of horses didn’t care for it at all. If she runs her standard races, she’s a standout back down to her first allowance condition.

CAMBODIA (#7) has really gotten good, but I don’t really like seeing Breeders’ Cup horses racing again in November, and not sure she can produce her best. The one who’s been freshened and pointed here, and who also has the potential Keeneland excuse, is Hawksmoor. Look at the splits of her races before you decide she’s going to be racing on the front end. I think she gets outrun a bit today and stalks that pace – and that it will be a good thing for her. Will back up a bit here using Cambodia, the two Chad Browns, and KITTEN’S ROAR (#12).

There is $63 worth of plays here:

(pick 3: $18 for $2)
1 with
all with
10

(pick 3: $10 for $2)
1 with
1,4,5,6,9 with
10

(pick 3: $25 for $1)
1 with
1,4,5,6,9 with
7,8,9,10,12

(pick 3: $10 for 50 cents)
1 with
1,4,5,6,9 with
7,8,9,10