Hersh: How I'll play Del Mar for Monday, Sept. 3, 2018

Don’t love anyone on this card (was more eager to take on favored Summering in the DMR Juvenile Fillies Turf yesterday than today, for some reason), but I’ll try to leverage one opinion in the last race and make some money on the late pick 4, which spans races 7 through 10.

Race 7
The favorites are Flagstaff (#7) and Show Me Da Lute (#8), the former making his two-turn debut, the latter having taken a string of losses in similar spots. Meh to both. Major Cabbie (#1) has ample upside and will be longer in the pick four than his 4-1 morning-line odds. I’ll use him as well as apparently improving last-start maiden winner Lord Guinness (#6) and King Cause (#9), who didn’t run a step at Mountaineer, which is a tough place to ship.

Race 8
Obviously, going to the unweighted “all” button is a caveman approach to these plays, but this 2-year-old turf-route MSW could not look more open, and I really think all of them do have a chance. Colonial Creed (#5) will be favored because her debut running line ends with the number 2 and the horse that beat her might win the stakes earlier on this card, but she did nothing special first out. Second choice could be Rayana (#10), whose trainer, Bob Baffert, wins all the freaking time with 2-year-old firsters but has sent out a grand total of three such horses (to no good effect) in two-turn turf races the last five years. Five years! This is just not his thing and Rayana is posted wide. We’ll see.

:: Wager on racing at Del Mar with DRF Bets

Race 9
Chalk Roadster (#3) looks a cut above based on a viewing of all the pertinent replays. Sigalert (#6) did look a bit heavy in debut and stands to improve, but doubt there’s enough to handle Roadster if the latter makes any second-start move forward.

Race 10
Here’s where the rubber meets the road. Will single Nevermissesabeat (#2), a big gray thing with a crooked right-front leg (he comes by it honestly if you recall his sire) that might have figured in his extended layoff. Still, thrice-started gelding has done something at least decent in all three of his races. Given his stride, the sprint debut was surely only a tuneup in any case, but he hopped at the start and spotted the field plenty of ground. Made a steady and solid run the second half and actually galloped-out all the way in front. Also won the gallop-out after again blowing the break when stretched to two turns second out, a race won on the front end in which he flashed encouraging ability again. Finally broke with the field last out in first start back from the long break but for some reason was allowed to run up to the lead midway down the backstretch, giving up a sweet pocket spot to duel with a 100-1 shot around the turn and into the stretch. Got out-quicked at the furlong grounds but came back again past the wire and has every right to improve today for a barn that’s won with three of last eight starts making second start back from a similar layoff.

Here’s the pick 4 play. $70 total. Pressing with the chalk (not because I like them, but to try and gin up some extra dollars if they come through) in both the first two legs.

50-cent pick four: 1,6,7,8,9 with all with 3 with 2 ($25)
$1 pick four: 7,8 with all with 3 with 2 ($20)
$5 pick four: 1,6,7,8,9 with 5 with 3 with 2 ($25)