Hersh: How I'll play Arlington for Saturday, Aug. 12

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS, Ill. – The fireworks come at the end of this loaded 12-race Arlington Million card, but I’ll be getting involved much earlier in the day with a strong opinion in race 2. The pick there is WESTERN ELEGANCE (#2), who might be second choice, but figures a distant second choice with Good Bye Greg taking a lot of play. GBG is an admirable horse, but very unsound and liable to regress at any time. He does not need the lead but he needs to be close, and there is other real speed in the race. Western Elegance returned from a long layoff two starts ago at this same class level and distance and absolutely would’ve won with a fair trip. He held his form in a Canadian G3 last out, and with luck will run down the pace this time.

I’ll play Western Elegance straight if he’s over 3-1 but am more interested in singling him in the early pick four, which spans races 1 through 4. Here’s how I’ll approach that bet.

Race 1 is an impossible 2-year-old maiden Polytrack sprint. I was mainly guessing making picks and want full coverage.

Race 3 will have DADDY’S BOO (#1) as the solid chalk, but she’s a need-the-lead type who could take pressure from ONE LIZ (#6), whose trainer has a second horse in the race. Spreading again.

Race 4 is a really tough 3-year-old turf maiden. I’d love to be able to lean more heavily on DON’TASK DON’TTELL (#1), who actually looked pretty good on turf first out before appearing to dislike Polytrack last time. In the end, though, I can’t trust him quite enough.

Race 1:
A: 3,4,5,6
B: 7,8
C: 1,2

Race 2:
A: 2

Race 3:
A: 1,4,5
B: 2,3,6

Race 4:
A: 1,5,6
B: 2,3,10
C: 4,7,8

That’s a $126 ticket for 50 cents using all As, As with one B, and As with two Bs. All As is $18 for 50-cents, and I’ll hit that one more time.

In race 8, I like SOCIETY BEAU (#10), who beat older horses going a 1.5-turn mile at Ellis, which suggests he can take advantage of what ought to be a favorable setup in this one-turn mile – provided he handles Polytrack. That’s a serious “provided,” but at the published 6-1 odds is worth a chance.

The pick 5 starts on race 8. Here’s one less expensive version of that bet I’ll play if the bankroll, heaven forbid, is depleted. In race 8, I’ll use GAIN GROUND (#6) along with Society Beau playing the race to fall to closers and / or stalkers. In race 9, the American St. Leger, I like only KEYSTONETOVICTORY (#1) and POSTULATION (#5) to win. In race 19, the Beverly D., I’ll single DONA BRUJA (#4), and in race 11, the Million, I’ll single DEAUVILLE (#5). Race 12, the Pucker Up, is daunting, but for the purposes of this bet I’ll use the three horses I best like: LIPSTICK CITY (#3), JOURNEY HOME (#4), and SENSITIVE (#6).

That’s 6,10 with 1,7 with 4 with 5 with 3,4,6 and it’s a mere $6 per 50-cent increment.

If the bankroll is healthier, I’ll take a bigger swing at the pick five. Everything will hinge on DEAUVILLE (#5), who I’ll single in the Million. He is the “best” horse in the race. Better, certainly, than fellow Euro Mekhtaal, who has not yet hit a level as high as Deauville’s AND has to deal with tough post 12. Kasaqui will improve, and Ascend can too, but Deauville gets his distance, his preferred turf, has a good draw, and seems to me easily the most likely winner here.

Race 8, since I mentioned it above, is a strong lean, though this ticket takes a couple back-ups (again, from off the pace). I’ll stick again here with my “big two” in the St. Leger, race 9.

I’m a big supporter of DONA BRUJA (#4) in race 10, the Beverly D., and unlike some I don’t worry about her stepping up after wins over shorter fields at lower levels. The problem is there are some other really good horses here. Who knows where GRAND JETE’s (#5) ceiling is, really? And HAWKSMOOR (#9) could be loose on the lead again. DACITA (#1), who had no chance in the New York once she fell so far behind early, and RAIN GODDESS (#10), whose 3-year-old weight allowance is mitigated by an outside post, are the Bs. The German longshot SARANDIA (#8) will knock out most everyone if she were to win; I’ll spend a bit to have her as a “C.”

The Pucker Up, race 12, closes the sequence, and while I’ve at least pretended to make a three-horse stand in the shorter ticket outlined above, this race could easily turn chaotic. And if it make it this far with a couple decent prices, I’d like to have maximum coverage.

So here’s the late pick five play, $117 per 50-cent increment:

Race 8:
A: 6, 10
B: 5
C: 9

Race 9:
A: 1,7

Race 10:
A: 4,5,9
B: 1, 10
C: 8

Race 11:
A: 5

Race 12:
A: 3,4,6
B: 2,7,10
C: 5,8,12

Good luck, and however you wind up playing, do dive into this Arlington card, as it is very appealing in terms of quality and, even more important, bettability.