Hersh: How I'll play the 2019 Arkansas Derby card at Oaklawn

The weather for Arkansas Derby Day suggests racegoers would do well to bring their arks. I mean, it looks really, really bad, with severe thunderstorms possible and a few inches (yep, a few) on top of the heavy rain already forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning.

Given that, I’m going to take things easy in terms of betting plans. Here are $32 worth of middle pick-four (races 5-8) plays I’ll put in – pending scratches, of course. I’m swerving the shortest prices in all these races, and anything that hits will pay well enough.

Race 5

Trying to get by with just three in this MSW sprint. Top choice is first-timer INDOMINITABLE SPIRIT (#7), who happens to be bred to get over a wet track and appears to have long been pointed to this debut spot by a capable trainer. UNSWEET TEA (#3) didn’t get a fair run last out following a speedy, mildly encouraging career debut. Asmussen has two first-timers: FOX ALERT (#8) might be the longer price, but I prefer her.

Race 6

All hangs on PYRON (#6), who caught the eye with a better-than-the-bare-margin debut win and appears to have been maneuvered into this spot since.

Race 7

I’ll play LINEMAKER (#10) straight at odds that figure to be 15-1 or higher. He’s obviously on this ticket, as are first-timers AROUND THE DIAL (#1) and MALIBU MO (#12), the former a good price, the latter probably not so much. Diorodo claimed ROCKNROLLROCKET (#4) out of last, has worked him fast, and cuts him back to a sprint. Interesting.

Race 8

Mushy mess of an N2X alw/$50K claimer over a route of ground. The only real opinion I can generate is that Mo’s Mojo, who will be one of the shorter prices, can’t go this far at this level with other pace pushing him. Nos. 1, 3, and 7 are tosses for me, and I can’t separate the other four and will use them all.

Race 5: 3, 7, 8
Race 6: 6
Race 7: 1, 4, 10, 12
Race 8: 4, 5, 6, 7
50-cent pick four = $24
One more 50-cent play using only #7 in race 5 = $8