The weather for Arkansas Derby Day suggests racegoers would do well to bring their arks. I mean, it looks really, really bad, with severe thunderstorms possible and a few inches (yep, a few) on top of the heavy rain already forecast for Friday night into Saturday morning. Given that, I’m going to take things easy in terms of betting plans. Here are $32 worth of middle pick-four (races 5-8) plays I’ll put in – pending scratches, of course. I’m swerving the shortest prices in all these races, and anything that hits will pay well enough. Race 5 Trying to get by with just three in this MSW sprint. Top choice is first-timer INDOMINITABLE SPIRIT (#7), who happens to be bred to get over a wet track and appears to have long been pointed to this debut spot by a capable trainer. UNSWEET TEA (#3) didn’t get a fair run last out following a speedy, mildly encouraging career debut. Asmussen has two first-timers: FOX ALERT (#8) might be the longer price, but I prefer her. Race 6 All hangs on PYRON (#6), who caught the eye with a better-than-the-bare-margin debut win and appears to have been maneuvered into this spot since. Race 7 I’ll play LINEMAKER (#10) straight at odds that figure to be 15-1 or higher. He’s obviously on this ticket, as are first-timers AROUND THE DIAL (#1) and MALIBU MO (#12), the former a good price, the latter probably not so much. Diorodo claimed ROCKNROLLROCKET (#4) out of last, has worked him fast, and cuts him back to a sprint. Interesting. Race 8 Mushy mess of an N2X alw/$50K claimer over a route of ground. The only real opinion I can generate is that Mo’s Mojo, who will be one of the shorter prices, can’t go this far at this level with other pace pushing him. Nos. 1, 3, and 7 are tosses for me, and I can’t separate the other four and will use them all. Race 5: 3, 7, 8 Race 6: 6 Race 7: 1, 4, 10, 12 Race 8: 4, 5, 6, 7 50-cent pick four = $24 One more 50-cent play using only #7 in race 5 = $8