Hersh: How I'd Play Saratoga on Wednesday, Aug. 27

Rain, rain, stay away - Saratoga has seven grass races today. The late pick four, in fact, is an all-turf event in which race 8 looks to these eyes the trickiest. Interest in the early races is tamped down by field size in several instances, though the P.G. Johnson, the early race 3 feature, is interesting. Some will sit out the early pick four and the pick five because of races 5 and 6, maiden races in which seeing the horses and the odds would be beneficial.

We’ll blow past the opener, a steeplechase, and pick up from there.

Race 2: Bold line-making move setting SHERIFCO (#5) at 9-5 compared to the 2-1 on Todd Pletcher-trained MARSH CREEK (#2). That, apparently, reflects the pervasive influence of the ongoing Pletcher cold streak – a Saratoga rarity. With six horses, the race is unappealing from a stand-alone perspective, and for pick five purposes it seems tough to take a stand here.

Race 3: The P.G. Johnson is pretty interesting and has some appealing prospects. SATURDAY SONNET (#2) led when romping in a one-turn, off-turf maiden score, there are three other entrants coming out of sprints in which they showed speed, and even French import ANCIENT GODDESS (#1) appears to want the lead or something close to it. The way to go might be guessing at a closer: RAINHA DA BATERIA (#6) is a leading option there, while FLYING TIPAT (#4) should have a real chance at a price.

Race 4: If you saw BEYOND EMPIRE’s (#1) last race – and, having bet him, I definitely did – the inclination would be to try and beat the 9-race maiden as the 8-5 morning-line favorite. With some effort cases can be made for an upset coming from various quarters. ALCOLITE does not look like one of them.

Race 5: Race appears to have some substance for a NY-bred 2-year-old maiden special weight turf sprint. The ones that jumped off the page to me as pick-whatever “A” possibles were MAJESTIC BLOOM (#1), IN SPITE OF MAMA (#4) and FIRST CHARMER (#7).

Race 6: Cashing leg of the early pick four – a doozy of a NY-bred $50K 2-year-old maiden claimer. MISS POTENZA (#5) had good speed facing open maidens at Ellis and probably is here for a reason. Beyond that – let the guessing begin.

Race 7: “Won last start” is a trainer stat I find meaningful: How good is an outfit at keeping a horse in top form? That’s what having starter-allowance horses requires. Get a horse eligible to a level at which he’s the boss and then keep him happy. The Mike Maker barn wins at a robust 27 percent clip with won-last-start runners. Perhaps not coincidentally, it has a lot of starter-allowance horses. CONSOLE (#6) just bossed foes at this class level and is accordingly priced at 1-1 on the morning line. STORMY ROCIT (#4) merits back-up consideration in multi-race wagers on the “got-eligible” angle - that is, he qualified for this starter condition in his most recent race.

Race 8: There will be scratches here, and the race, another $25K turf starter, this one at a route, might look significantly different at post time than it does on paper. It’s a very tough one. MANCHURIAN CREEK (#3) and SAYLER’S CREEK (#7) are the mild favorites. The former just missed last out in the $100K John’s Call, and the latter, another Maker trainee, has won five of his last eight. The John’s Call, though, was more than a half-mile longer than this race, and Sayler’s Creek actually looks a wee bit light on class. Careful here.

Race 9: Lots of speed in N1X turf-sprint allowance. BIG SUGAR SODA (#8) has gone 0 for 2014 but has made decent progress recently. He, CASA CREEK (#6), SPARTIATIS (#2) and ZIPTRONIC (#10) ought to cover the late pick four, but while I’d use him conservatively in that pool, Ziptronic in my book is an 8-5 morning-line favorite worth trying to beat.

Race 10: If you came into this live in pick-whatevers to the two chalks, RETIRE FIFTY FIVE (#9) and ROMANS PARADISE (#5) I suppose you’d have to feel decently about your chances. Actually, I’d be far, far from confident. Please – dabble in “B” and “C” backups in this $40K maiden-claiming turf route if the bankroll permits it.