Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Wednesday, Aug. 20

The good news is the conditions are fast and firm, with only a wisp of a rain chance today. The bad news: There’s not much heft to the card. Six of the nine flat races on the program have a claiming tag somewhere in the race conditions, and we go down as low as a $16,000 non-winners-of-two in race 5 – smack in the middle of the early pick four.

Key scratch: HEAR THE FOOTSTEPS (#2) is out of race 3. I thought he was being dropped in for a $40,000 tag to win a race and was willing to single the horse in the pick four. Trainer Linda Rice has a second runner in the race, KARAKORUM LEGEND (#8), who now merits a long second look upon the withdrawal of his stablemate.

I can’t get a handle on the early pick four and will make only a small play on the late one, given the nature of the sequence, but let’s take a quick look at all the non-steeplechase races today.

Race 2

RIDINGWITHTHEDEVIL (#2) is 6-5 on the morning line and undoubtedly will take equal play in the pick three and the pick five, but I couldn’t trust her like that. This is a 4-year-old filly who missed winning a maiden special weight by a neck two starts and less than two months ago, and after one further decent try at the MSW level, she’s down to $35,000 maiden claiming? Red flags. Both horses from trainer Pat Reynolds ran well Monday without winning, and perhaps STATUS (#6) is ready for something today. She’s one of two long-layoff comebackers, along with REQUESTADA (#8), dropping from a lone MSW start last year.

Race 3

On paper, there’s little speed in this one-mile turf race, and KARAKORUM LEGEND could sneak off to a clear lead through a slow pace. However, SANCTIFY (#6) is adding blinkers off a win – unusual – for Bill Mott and had sprint speed earlier in his career, and there’s a decent chance he goes forward today. Not sure how one could have a strong opinion here.

Race 4

A six-horse field of 2-year-old $75,000 maiden claimers, and some kind of case could be made for all of them. The Rudy Rodriguez barn already sent out a steamer of a first-timer in a similar race two racing weeks ago, and PANCAKESANDBATTER (#1) will be bet down a bit accordingly. Pletcher has two, and I’d prefer the slow-breaking-from-post 1 JIMBARAN BAY (#3) to MARIANO INTHENINTH (#2), who just doesn’t look quick enough for this trip. You’d want wide coverage here if playing pick whatevers, wouldn’t you?

Race 5

CAJUN WEDDING (#5) could go lower than 2-1 morning line with blinkers added making her first start after a claim by the Mike Maker barn. I think it’d be crazy to lean much at all on her. Nos. 1, 2, and 4 look overmatched. Throw the other names in a hat and hope for the best – that’s my technical opinion.

Race 6

ROMAN APPROVAL (#7) chased U.S. stakes-class Tonito M. in Puerto Rico and N1X allowance foes going a mile in his two starts since coming to the mainland. Cutting back to a sprint and dropping into a $25,000 3-year-old claimer (with a $50,000 purse!), he looks like the most likely winner. Would have to back up with 2, 3, and 4 here in the cashing leg of a tough pick four and pick five.

Race 7

A little easier for me to get a handle on the first leg of the late pick four, a 3-year-old filly one-mile turf N1X allowance with a $75,000 claiming option. I’m going two deep. FADE TO BLACK (#4) won’t offer anything like the 16-1 price in her near-miss at about this level making her turf debut July 19, but I think that race was for real. She should be close to what projects as a slow pace. If the race shakes out with little speed, French import KENZADARGENT (#8) probably will be disadvantaged, but she remains the most likely winner for Chad Brown in her North American debut.

Race 8

Two As, two backups in this New York-bred 2-year-old turf-sprint MSW. ONE EYED RAY (#1) has a long string of morning work that suggests he’s quick enough to get position breaking from post 1, and the pedigree is very appealing for a short 2-year-old turf race. WATERGATE (#4) debuted in the slop and showed speed, and I have a feeling he might have been intended for this spot all along. Those are the As. BANANA THIEF (#2) was rained off grass in his debut and is bred for turf. SARATOGA DREAMER (#10) could get hung wide on the turn from this draw.

Race 9

STORMING INTI (#6) definitely should win this. The italics are there because the way he’s finished his recent races, including the Sir Cat here last month, doesn’t inspire confidence. He’ll still be a lone A. Up to three backups, but they feel more “C” than “B.” HEART TO HEART (#2) would be somewhat appealing cutting back to a much better distance for him, but he risks getting caught up in a fast pace. MARK MY WAY (#4) has only faced New York-breds but got a good last quarter Aug. 4. That PURE SENSATION (#7) rallied from off the pace for the first time while making his turf debut might be more than coincidence, but there obviously are distance questions.

Race 10

There was a race like this – $16,000 claiming, nine furlongs on dirt – on July 28, and BEDOUIN NOW (#9) won it at odds of 28-1, which speaks directly to this mess. In fact, on a fast main track, Bedouin Now is one of only a couple I won’t be trying to squeeze onto a pick four play. Are we living in an age of wiseguy plays or what? BATTLE HARDENED was claimed June 26 for $40,000 out of a race in which he was eased, and that after a 19-length loss, yet he’s the 5-2 favorite on the morning line dropping $24,000 in claim price – and that feels like about the right price.