Hersh: How I’d play Saratoga on Wednesday, Aug. 13
Can’t see the point of sugar-coating it: This card wasn’t exactly bursting with appeal on paper, and now, after the deluge, we’ve got a canceled steeplechase, three off-turf races (4,6, and 8) and a pending decision on the Troy Stakes, race 9, which also could be taken off grass. What’s left is a program that I’ll be approaching tepidly, at best.
Personally, I’ve been going well recently, especially at Saratoga, but there’s no point in forcing plays on days where the races fall apart like this. Keep the powder dry for better things to come.
The sixth and the eighth are decimated by off-turf scratches, but the sixth, at least, has a few appealing main-track-onlys in ZEE BROS, EASTWOOD, and PIQUANT. Zee Bros spent the winter in Dubai to no great effect and probably will appreciate getting back to dirt, but he has no wet-track record, and I’ve no idea if sire Brother Derek throws mudders.
The late pick four, races 7-10, is subject to chalking out, but might be worth exploring. ISABELLE is 6-5 on the morning line in Race 7, and that was without necessarily accounting for a wet track: Her only mud start produced a 12 1/2-length blowout in May.
Race 8, on the other hand, could get interesting: There are no obvious main-track standouts, though the fairly short list of remaining entrants tamps down the chance for landing a price in serial wagers.
If the Troy winds up on dirt – and there’s got to be a decent chance it does – main-track-only graded-sprint stakes dropper DADS CAPS clearly is going to be a handful. He’s a realistic 4-5 on the line and is bred to love a wet track.
The favorite in race 10, cashing leg of the late pick four, is listed at 7-2 which says all you need to know about the level of contentiousness there. Even if Isabelle in race 7 and Dads Caps in race 9 hit, prices in the eighth and the 10th would make the late pick four worth having, and – after seeing what happens with the Troy – I’ll consider a single-spread-single-spread strategy.