Hersh: How I’d play Saratoga on Thursday, July 31
It’s all about the weather, really. There’s a good chance of rain – possibly heavy – throughout the day, but the stuff is moving in waves and will be somewhat scattered, so timing and amounts are tough to predict. Five of the day’s 10 turf races – starting with race 3 – are carded for grass, and the card could wind up looking in reality nothing like it looks on paper.
Race 2 is all about shaky horses at short prices: A Pletcher coming out of a Monmouth loss, a competitive figure horse whose figure was earned in an New York-bred race. But with a seven-horse field, there’s not much to do with the race: I mean, UPDRAFT, a second-time starter who showed nothing in his sprint debut, would be the sort of horse who might appeal in a larger group, but he’s 3-1 (!) on the line.
If race 3 comes off grass, main-track-only ISABELLE is likely to go postward even lower than her 9-5 morning line. She exits a Grade 3 stakes for a New York-bred allowance, and if there’s rain, has a muddy-track romp showing on her form. But careful: The filly has misbehaved during racing in two of her five starts, and she might not be nearly as dominant as that mud blowout suggests. Numbers 2, 3, 7, and 10 can be used as main-track backups on multi-race tickets. On turf, WHITE SANGRIA gets off the rail and will deservedly be favored, but she hardly appears invulnerable.
In the 4th – Pletcher off the claim?! Doesn’t happen often. NORTH OCEAN ran two big nine-furlong races at this meet last year. Think that didn’t factor into Saratoga-loving owner Mike Repole dropping the slip for him late last month at Belmont? He’s going to be tough and might be single-able. Trainer David Jacobson has CEASE here. Cease hasn’t panned out at all since being high-end claimed and might still be in decline. And until I see signs of the barn reversing its 1-for-20 start at this meet (not just that, but several logical horses have been dead on the tote board), I’m staying away.
You like inscrutable? Dig into race 5. I’m either staying away or spreading as wide a net as possible in multi-race wagers, be this turf or rained onto dirt.
In the 6th, a New York-bred 2-year-old maiden special, I see two horses – maybe three. The big two, SARATOGA HEATER and BULLHEADED BOY, share a desirable characteristic: They’re by low-cost stallions ($5,000 and $3,000 published fees, respectively) and cost six figures at 2-year-old in training auctions. That usually means one thing – runner. Just look at the first word in Saratoga Heater’s name, and then look at that long, solid work pattern: Great chance he’s been pointed to be sharp first-time out this meet. Use both of them and also consider WATERGATE.
On turf, race 7, a $25,000 starter allowance, is going to be highly contentious, but most of the grass contenders appear to want no part of dirt, should this be rained off. My guess is after his first Saratoga winner lit up the board, high-percentage trainer Brad Cox will be heavily, heavily bet here with main-track-only PROSECUTION – and perhaps for good reason.
On turf, MISTER SPECIAL, SHAUN’S BLESSING, and STORM are the ones for me in the late pick four. Several horses appear in the main body of the field – STREET GENT, QUICK INDIAN, GRANMD ARRIVAL – look like de facto main-track entrants. It’s got to be a spread race if off turf.
In the 9th, the featured Evan Shipman for New York-breds, half the battle is finding a horse that stays nine furlongs. AWESOME VISION is that horse, and he ran two good ones at the distance last Saratoga meet. He’s on his third start this form cycle, ought to benefit from an honest pace in front of him, and has won before on wet, if it comes to that. Strongly considering making him a lone “A” in the late pick 4.
Race 10, the finale, and the cashing leg of a pick four I’m playing – it’s a doozy, as you’d expect from a $25K N2L claimer with a full field. If on dirt, I think STORMY LEN has a decent edge, but on turf, I’m using as many as I can afford.