Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga for Thursday, July 30
The second half of the Thursday card at Saratoga holds no appeal for me, and my Saratoga play on Thursday ends with the early pick four in race 6. Races 3 and 5 are interesting, but both look tough, with multiple contenders, and the key to my wagering day will come in race 4, the John Morrissey, a New York-bred dirt sprint.
At 6-5 on the morning line – and perhaps destined to be bet below that price – is PALACE (#4). Palace won two Grade 1’s last year, including the Vanderbilt at Saratoga, and he had an absolutely wonderful 2014 campaign. That was then – this is now. One reason Palace got so much attention last year was his surprising rise from relative obscurity; in 2013, while an accomplished New York sprinter, he was nowhere near the same horse.
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Palace went to the Breeders’ Cup Sprint, a tough ship into a tough spot at the end of a demanding campaign, and when he returned to action this year, in a soft edition of the Grade 1 Carter in April, he ran flat, and Palace has not seen action since that start. Might he rebound dropping into New York-bred competition in the Morrissey? He might. But this spot is no gimme.
NOBLE CORNERSTONE (#8, 4-1) will be my key horse in the race, and I’ll play him to win if he sticks close to this morning-line odds. He probably bounced when jumped from New York-bred allowance to the King’s Bishop last season at Saratoga, had a rotten trip in the Hudson to end his 2014 campaign, and – belatedly – got his 2015 season underway with a sharp last-out win at Belmont, followed by fast work at Saratoga. He’s in line for a favorable setup and is a lone “A” in a pick four play spanning races 3-6 because of the jumps race in the opener.
Attempted to narrow race 3 down to two A’s, and got some help from the DRF Clocker report (www.drf.com/saratoga-clocker), which tells me the two Todd Pletcher first-timers, INSIDE STRAIGHT (#8, 4-1) and SUDDEN SURPRISE (#7, 6-1) have worked in company, with Inside Straight decidedly outworking Sudden Surprise, and thus relegating that horse to “B” status. The most likely winner seems to be FISH TRAPPE ROAD (#3, 3-1) who held his own debuting with open maiden special weight foes at Churchill and goes for a strong outfit with 2-year-olds.
Race 5, a 2-year-old maiden special weight turf sprint, looks trickier and asks for a wider net to be cast. The A’s are GEM (#4, 12-1), who has a good chance to outrun double-digit odds; KENTUCKY ROAD (#5, 3-1) whose pedigree is ‘I don’t know what it means” (Midshipman) over an excellent turf-sprint influence (Belong to Me); and CATCH A GLIMPSE (#10, 6-1), one of two for trainer Mark Casse, and the one with the better turf sprint pedigree. One B and two C’s provide backup.
Don’t especially like anyone in race 6, a 3-year-old filly turf-route claimer, but the race still looks manageable; two A’s, two B’s, nothing fancy.
Here’s a link to the pick four play in DRF’s fantastic mobile version of Ticketmaker:
