Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Thursday, Aug. 13
Here are my issues with the Thursday card at Saratoga (leaving aside that it doesn’t have a lot of obvious quality): A) After a wet Wednesday, and with a chance of rain still in the area, no idea what sort of condition we’ll get for grass, which makes strong opinions hard to form. And that leads to B) There is no string of consecutive races that appeal, and without a hard nut of a single somewhere in the mix, I wouldn’t be more than stabbing at a pick-anything.
So, I’m going to focus on a few individual horses who might be the right price to play to win and could be the focus of vertical exotic play.
Race 3: SPEIGHTSTOWN TIME (#3, 5-1) has the look of a live first-time starter. I really like seeing notably fast works scattered in an otherwise-modest workout pattern in a horse making his debut, and this colt has that pattern. Trainer Barclay Tagg didn’t breeze him on grass until his final pre-start drill, and in that work Speightstown time bulleted, best of 25 going a half-mile. I suspect he has ample speed, and Speightstown is a sire who makes me look twice with a horse turf-sprinting for the first time. This is the first foal to race for the dam Impossible Time, a multiple stakes winner who was 9-for-17 in her Canadian career, who could turf, and who won her career debut in a six-furlong race. The Todd Pletcher horse, Battle Red, should take money, but I worry this colt could be bet down. I wouldn’t want less than 3-1 as a straight win proposition.
Race 5: SPARK (#4, 7/2) is another first-time turf sprinter by Speightstown, just like Speightstown Time, and being out of a Maria’s Mon mare, there’s a strong chance she’ll handle turf in her first try. Perhaps as important as the surface is this race’s 5 1/2-furlong distance. The filly has been dirt-sprinting at slightly longer trips, and at six furlongs and beyond, her racing nature – apparently very speedy, doesn’t want to be rated – has proven a liability at times. Going shorter, she ought to be able to let it rip and not worry too much about getting late. Also, that third behind Cavorting two back looks nice now that Cavorting easily won the Grade 1 Test. Her subpar last race helps the price, as do the presence of two horses I’m against, IROQUOIS GIRL (#2, 7-2) and DAUPHINE RUSSE (#5, 2-1).
Race 7: SILVERPOCKETSFULL (#4, 7-2) was away poorly racing in slop for the first time while making a post-layoff start she probably needed. That’s the sort of circumstance that can generate value, and this filly clearly is good enough to win this allowance race with a step back toward her best spring form. She ought to stay the nine furlongs and appears to have worked solidly since shipping to Saratoga.