Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Sunday, Aug. 30
This card is for the hardcore, the day after a massive 13-race Travers Day extravaganza. What’s more, it’s a tough one, too. There’s no single horse in any of the races on which I’d hang my shingle. Somewhat drained (mentally and financially) from Saturday’s pari-mutuel activities, I’m making one play on this card, the pick three covering races 6-8, and doing it in near-caveman style, with just one backup in two of the three races. Even if this sequence chalks out, it will cover the $48 cost of one $1 ticket, since I see no standouts in any of the races, though I suppose Ocean Knight could come in for serious race 8 support.
Race 6 – Two works at Gulfstream Park West and trainer Gustavo Delgado picked out pricey Flatter first-timer PAOLA QUEEN (5) to bring to Spa, where she blasted a bullet half-mile from the gate in her first work over track. I keep going back to what Todd Pletcher said pre-meet about his 2-year-olds, that the fillies were more advanced than the colts. CASTOR (7) has been working forever (and locally) for debut. LADY DEVIL (9) went head and head through a slow pace when the track was deeper than it is now and was easily second best, beaten by the subsequent Grade 2 Adirondack winner Just Wicked. She’s been given ample recovery time for 32 percent second-out barn. Kiaran McLaughlin first-timer WEMBLEY (1) is the “B.”
:: See Marcus Hersh's Saratoga pick three play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets
Race 7 – The favorites EIDMILAAD (4) and DISSIDENT (9) both have merit in my mind. Eidmilaad is out of Ruthian, who has been a very, very good producer of turf-route fillies. Dissident had a difficult post for debut run and made steady progress. She might be ridden more assertively early this time. McLaughlin debuter CUMBERLAND RIVER (7) is a half to dirt starter Congaree but has strong grass influence all over female family. Less pedigree for the lone “B” play PINSON (1), but respect barn’s work with firsters in turf races.
Race 8 – With Juba, Waco, and Blame Jim in this 6 1/2-furlong dirt dash, the race is supposed to have a fast contested pace and fall to a stalker or closer, and that’s strictly how I’m playing. OCEAN KNIGHT (4) might be a good horse, already showed he has the speed to sprint, and sports an appealing work pattern. DOUBLEDOWN AGAIN (7) had no pace in front of him last time and has several contending races at this level. DOC ALMON (3) is in just a touch deep probably, even with a rebound to best, but right running style, and I don’t want to be post-race whining over leaving out horse making first start for ace first-off-claim (30 percent wins, $2.17 ROI) outfit.
In addition to the $48 main ticket, I’m playing another $2 straight ticket 9-4-4 since this seems likely to be the solidly favored combination in the pool.
Best of luck in your wagers.