Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Saturday, July 25
Really interesting card nearly from start to finish, with an apparently well-matched group of 2-year-olds in the Sanford and an interesting edition of the Grade 1 Diana. Personally, I’d lay more horses at short odds on this card than play at longer prices, but that’s not an option in North American parimutuel wagering, and so, onward.
RACE 1 – BOALT HALL (#5) is 5-2 on the morning line for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. I see two options: He’s bet down to half that price, or he comes up tepid on the board, which – for these connections – usually is a bad sign. I could see, depending on prices, taking a little swing here with METAL MAGIC (#6) or HUNDRED YEARS (#4). The former was edged by the touted Twirling Cinnamon (runs in Sanford) on debut and looks like value at 4-1 morning line. With Steve Asmussen, who trains Hundred Years, it can be a case of the slower they work, the faster they race.
RACE 2 – It’s a total crapshoot, this turf-route N1X allowance, to start the early pick four. You know this is the case when the 5-2 morning-line favorite is BAM BAM (#3), a horse who has never been two turns in three U.S. starts and was eighth at this class level last out at Santa Anita. Looked long and hard at EXCELLENT ROYALE (#8), whose works for good long-layoff and Spa barn are encouraging and whose price will be long. But there’s just so little form there.
RACE 3 – I’m starting a pick three using three horses: CRAFTY COLONEL (#1), SMARTY KITTEN (#2), and LIFE IMITATES ART (#6). The last two, SK for Wesley Ward and LIA for Chad Brown, are going to be bet. Crafty Colonel, for a sneaky-good two-turn turf-debut outfit, will be a price.
Pick 3 play
Race 3: 1,2,6
Race 4: A – 1 B – 9
Race 5: A – 3,6,9 B – 1,7,8,10
RACE 4: STAY TUNED (#1) looks like the 800-pound gorilla, and his morning-line price reflects it, but the rail draw is far from ideal here. I’ll lean on him in the race 3-4-5 pick three but back up with SEAN AND MATT, a route-sprint layoff horse with one big race growing stale and several potential excuses since.
RACE 5: The more you look, the tougher it gets, this 5 1/2-furlong 2-year-old maiden special weight race. I am relegating the once-started Kentuckians to second-tier status and hoping that among several promising first-timers, HORNER MAN (#3, 15-1) proves like. Works suggest he’s quick, and pedigree says he should be.
RACE 6: Not playing this race, but LEWYS VAPORIZER (#3, 3-1) is a favorite worth opposing. On dirt at this class level going six or seven furlongs, he’d be in great shape, but his Polytrack start last out – in which, on paper, he towered over the field – suggested that dirt is what he needs for his best. Also strikes me as horse who prefers something farther than 5 1/2 furlongs.
RACE 7: Like PAID UP SUBSCRIBER (#6, 4-1) as well as any horse on this card, and at morning-line price or higher, I’ll play her straight. Horrible-trip debut, easy second-out win, and after a breather, a very healthy-looking work pattern for a barn that does not generally ask for speed in the morning. Singling to start a race 7-8-9 pick three.
RACE 8: South American imports not exactly a specialty of the House of Pletcher, but 2014 Chilean Derby runner-up ZAMBIAN DREAM (#4) is the tepid morning-line choice making North American debut. We do have some kind of line on the horse, since he raced several times against Il Campione, a decent third in the Poker making his US debut. But I’m not sold and will spread as wide as the bankroll allows in a race 7-8-9 pick three.
RACE 9: Kind of creeps up on you, all the speed entered in the Sanford. They should be going a swift, contested pace early and middle here. TWIRLING CINNAMON (#9, 10-1) already came from off the pace to win debut, overcoming trouble, too, in what Churchill observers were calling the best 2-year-old maiden special weight race of the Churchill Downs meeting. He’s come back with some serious-looking work since and is a potential improver, though probably at odds lower than the morning line. COCKED AND LOADED (#8, 3-1) has demonstrated rateability and is logical, but he was an early developer, and peers could be catching up soon.
RACE 10: For me, that was a sit-up-and-take-notice turf debut from MY MISS SOPHIA (#6, 5-2) last out at Belmont, but while I’d make her my top pick, I couldn’t play straight at 5-2 jumping up in class to a Grade 1. There’s a rabbit here for STEPHANIE’S KITTEN, and TEPIN will want to show some pace, but My Miss Sophia has the cozy outside draw to overcome that. Not a believer in WALTZING MATILDA, who took advantage when Stephanie misfired in the New York.
RACE 11: Betting day ends for me in race 10. Best of luck!