Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Saturday, Aug. 23

I’m keeping my powder dry early on this marathon card, making sure I still have firepower later in the day, though to be honest, there are limited number of individual horses in the 14 races that I really like.

I can’t muster any kind of strong opinion in races 1, 2, or 3, though I have the tiniest bit of interest in ICED OVER (#9) at presumably long odds in race 3. He was making his first start in almost two months winning a New York-bred maiden last out in his first try vs. statebred-restricted competition, and he strikes me as the sort of recent graduate who could actually take a step forward in his first try with other winners. Numbers 3 and 10 look must-use in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

There’s a horse in race 4, FROSTED (#5), who holds interest, and could lead me to the pick three on races 3,4, and 5. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is fond of saying his barn rarely wins with first-time starters: Well, 19 percent is not “rarely,” and McLaughlin sports a $2.51 return on investment on debut. This Darley colt has been breezing at Saratoga since roughly the Mesozoic era, and the more recent works that the bulk of clockers have seen might merely have been icing on a baked cake.

In race 5, 3-1 morning-line fave DIVINE LUCK is 1 for 20 lifetime and 1 for 18 on turf, and she’s been trying to clear this first allowance condition since 2012. She should come with a warning label: “Use sparingly and at your own risk.” There are several similar models in the race, and I’ll lean on the greater upside of ENCHANTING LISA (#1), CHAT (#2), PALACE DREAMS (#5) and LUNA TIME (#6).

Short-priced long-layoff comebackers lack appeal, something driven home Friday at Saratoga by 4-5 Cigar Street’s loss. DIVIDED ATTENTION (#10) won’t be 4-5 in race 7 but she might be favored. She’s first Lasix, and her trainer, McLaughlin, also is strong with long-term returnees, but I couldn’t rely on her. This entry-level allowance looks like several races on the card’s first half: multiple contenders separated on paper by next to nothing.

In race 8, one might surmise trainer David Jacobson claimed BAD DEBT (#4) for $80,000 in July with exactly this spot in mind. The New York Racing Association boosts overnight purses on Travers Day, and Bad Debt, while dropping to $62,500 claiming, races for a whopping $105,000 purse. Claim-and-drop usually should be avoided, but this instance looks different.

The Ballston Spa, race 9, is the first of the stakes and might be the trickiest. The turf is “good” and Dayatthespa is scratched, leaving 30-1 no-hoper NIGHT SONG the only speed in a six-horse field. FILIMBI (#7) will be very well backed off her sharp De La Rose score last out, but she got to stalk a fast pace and drive to the finish in the clear that day, and she wasn’t nearly as impressive in her two previous U.S. starts. Moreover, connections have a Grade 1 at Keeneland in October as a main goal and this is more of a stepping-stone sort of race. Filimbi is no standout in my book. I want to like STRATHNAVER (#4), who seems especially susceptible to race shape, but, as in the Diana, this looks like the wrong one for her: She seems to want to make one move into a fast pace. ABACO (#3) might run later than anyone, yet she has done well closing into soft splits, and her off-turf form looks best in the field. My sense is CENTRE COURT (#2) will never get back to her best form, but can one be sure? For me, it’s a spread race in the all-stakes pick four.

I like COUP DE GRACE (#8) best in the King’s Bishop and will lean on him accordingly in the pick four. WILDCAT RED (#2), FAST ANNA (#6) and THE BIG BEAST (#7) also will make it onto the ticket.

The Ballerina is a squishy Grade 1 in which my strongest opinion is anti, not pro: Morning-line favorite MY MISS AURELIA (#4) is a toss. Based on seeing some selections – including mine – HOT STONES (#8) is going to prove a more popular choice than her 6-1 morning line. I’ll consider her for vertical bets and will use her, ARTEMIS AGROTERA (#1) and BETTER LUCKY (#2) in the pick four. LA VERDAD’s chance got a boost with the scratch this morning of pace rival VOODOO TALES.

My view of the Travers strictly is conventional: WICKED STRONG (#7), TONALIST (#6) and BAYERN (#2) in that order. My guess is Bayern is going to be flat in the betting and Tonalist live. Those thinking that they are going to get value on Tonalist because of Bayern’s presence might be disappointed. Wicked Strong remains something of an X factor: He won the Jim Dandy despite, as usual, getting worked up before the race, and the hope is he doesn’t become unnerved by the big crowd.

In race 13, EQUILATERAL (#6) will get some sort of play from me, though by that time, state of bankroll will determine depth of investment. I think she’s a good bet to improve in her turf debut and I’ll use her with numbers 1,3,4,5, and 9.