Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga for Monday, Sept. 1

Closing day card split five and five between turf and dirt. The main track was listed as muddy during the morning, but with no rain in the forecast or on the radar one has to figure the dirt will be upgraded as the afternoon progresses, perhaps to the point of being fast by card’s end. The turf is “good” and is likely to remain that way, and the rain that came Sunday probably was a plus for a course that appeared to have become very hard and fast.

The main track favored inside positions and, to some extent, speed the last two racing days, but after Sunday’s hard rain and a drying-out period there’s good reason to keep one’s eyes open for a shift in profile today.

I though the front end of this card looked more manageable than the back and will play accordingly, focusing my action on the early 50-cent pick five. The Grade 1 Hopeful, race 4, sits in the middle of the sequence, and here’s how I’ll structure a pick five ticket:

Race 1

A: 8,9
B: 3,6

Race 2

A: 1,2,4,8

Race 3

A: 4,8,9
B: None
C: 5, 11

Race 4

A: 5,6

Race 5

A: 1

Here’s a snapshot look at the 10 races:

Race 1: There’s no pace in this nine-furlong grass allowance, which could turn things tricky. The morning-line favorite, CLEARBROOK (#6) has been getting out-quicked late in her nine-furlong races and prefers a longer trip. My focus would be on LADY OF GOLD (#8), who’s second off a layoff for trainer Graham Motion with room to improve, and THREE HEARTS (#9), who stretches from a pair of one-mile tries to what looks like a more suitable nine-furlong trip.

Race 2: Can’t see much of substance to hang one’s hat on here. Saratoga DRF analyst Dave Litfin pointed out a first-timer I also thought had a chance, the Finger Lakes shipper SWEET SWEET AFLEET (#4). Hoping either he, rail-drawn potential speed BRAD’S RUBY (#1), turf-to-dirt JOSHANS GIANT (#2), or barn-changing, second-time-starting layoff horse MARRIEDTOMICHAEL (#8) can get home. If your bankroll can tolerate more flexibility in pick-whatevers, use it.

Race 3: ELUSIVE NEW YORKER (#4) ran into a fast winner and backed out of a strong early pace making his career debut July 13 on dirt at Belmont. He was a pricey yearling buy who probably has more talent than that lone start suggests, and being out of a Known Fact mare he’s likely to prefer grass today to the dirt he got last time. He’s worked right along for a barn that’s winning races this meet, and I like his chances. I used two first-timers, BUDDY THE ELF (#8) and FLEETING (#9) as pick five A plays, and first-timer MARK MY STYLE (#5) and second-time turf BANANA THIEF (#11), who got in from the AE list, as C's.

Race 4: If COMPETITIVE EDGE (#6) doesn’t win the Hopeful from somewhere near the front end (and I think he will), I SPENT IT (#5) probably will rally to victory. Keeping it that chalky and simple.

Race 5: Expecting a chalky end to the pick five as the coupled entry of SHIMBA and READYHEARTANDSOUL (#1) have turned in the two best races among the 11 horses in this New York-bred maiden special weight. If I were to start trying to include backups, suddenly there are six more horses on the ticket. The two first-timers, DISCO JOEY (#2) and IMPOSING FIGURE (#10) both come out of low-percentage debut outfits.

Race 6: No positive opinion in this $40K turf-route claimer, but do have a negative one. Morning-line favorite LIVE IN JOY (#4) exits an Arlington race with an inflated optional-claiming price and, perhaps, an inflated speed figure. He hasn’t looked truly competitive in any of his 2014 races, and with so many layoff lines, a class drop, and a circuit switch, one wonders if the hope lies as much with losing the horse via a claim as winning the race. We’ll see.

Race 7: Feel adrift in this 5 1/2-furlong maiden-special for 2-year-olds. Likely favorite CARPE DIEM (#1) cost $1.6 million at a 2-year-old auction. Curious to me that given his pedigree (by Giant's Causeway) he starts his career in such a short sprint. At this distance, breaking sharply from the rail is very important, and I don’t entirely trust him to be quick enough into the race. As for alternatives, how about – “all others?”

Race 8: Connections of C J’S AWESOME (#8) came close to trying him in the Travers. He’d have been overmatched there, but his improved blinkers-off form fits this allowance spot. The concern is the race flow could be against his front-running tendencies. WIZARDLY (#1) took several starts in the spring to gear up to a peak performance, a blowout victory over none other than C J’s Awesome, and after three starts this form cycle - the last a very decent local seven-furlong try - he might be set for another breakthrough.

Race 9: Tourist didn’t cover himself in glory, but he ran a solid second behind Adelaide at a distance probably farther than his best in the Grade 1 Secretariat, a performance that flattered RING WEEKEND (#1), second to Tourist in the Sir Cat on this course. Ring Weekend’s only other turf try produced a second to graded-stakes winner Divine Oath, and I’m fairly confident he’ll deliver a representative effort. That looks good enough to beat everyone in the Saranac, with the possible exception of WALLYANNA (#10), and going just two deep in the late pick four might cover things here.

Race 10: Meet goes out mildly with $16K claimers at 7 furlongs on dirt. Morning-line favorite SHANKOPOTAMAUS (#10) drops in claiming price after a win but remains over the claim price paid two starts ago – also known as “a realistic move.” He’s well drawn on the outside, worked between starts, and has a slight edge over MOE MAN (#8).