Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Monday, July 28

Twenty-two scratches as of 11 a.m. Eastern on a wet-main-track, off-turf card. As one might imagine, this puts a fairly low ceiling on both the quality and playability of this card, particularly since four of the nine races were carded for turf.

Only one of those grass races sits in the late pick four sequence (races 6-9), and that’s where I’ll focus my attention today, ignoring the early races in terms of wagering, but keeping close tabs on race shapes on what could wind up a drying-out track.

The surface on Sunday was fairly radical: Early fractions were on the slow side, but final fractions were very slow, the product of what must have been a laboring, if not exhausting, surface. There was a break in rain from yesterday until very early this morning, and I’m not at all sure we’ll see the same wet track today as we did yesterday, which is even more incentive – in my mind – to tread lightly early on this card.

The key horse in the sequence will be SPEEDINTHRUTHECITY (#2) in race 8, the featured Honorable Miss. Even with RED VELVET scratched, a pace duel between LA VERDAD and R FREE ROLL seems inevitable, with a couple more horses likely to press just behind speeds. It’s a potentially lovely setup for Speedinthruthecity, who might still be improving midway through her 4-year-old season. She handled with aplomb a sloppy track at Oaklawn earlier this year, crushed foes (albeit of middling quality) in a listed race last out at Churchill, and has gotten in three local works prepping for this spot.

Not singling, though Speedinthroughthecity might well be the lone “A” in the race, depending on track bias. I’ll use both the speeds, in case one shakes loose, though I prefer La Verdad to R Free Roll, and might pop fast-working CALISTOGA in as a “C.”
ZOEBEAR (#3), RAP D’ORO (#5), and ROMANCING THE GOLD (#9) definitely are making the ticket in race 9. LESSON IN DECEIT (#4) and MR ESPESSO (#6) might also find a spot.

In race 7, BIG SUGAR SODA (#4), FATHER JOHN’S PRIDE (#7), APEX (#9), and ORATION (#14) look like must-uses. Fill in around the margins from there.

Race 6, a $50,000 maiden claimer, is full of iffy-looking droppers, a debuter from a barn that rarely wins with first-timers, and an 11-race maiden. Will cast as wide a net as the bankroll can bear, though APPEALING ALEX (#7) caught my eye at 10-1 on the morning line. After a decent debut he has three potentially excuse-laden failures and an appealing local work pattern from a trainer who wins steadily with class droppers from maiden special weights to maiden claiming.