Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Monday, Aug. 4

It’s New York-bred Day, with seven statebred races – including two stallion stakes on turf – and two claimers making up the nine-race card. I don’t love any single horse on this card, but I like a couple of races, and despite the presence of a couple of very difficult races in both sequences, the early and late pick fours might be manageable. There are several nine-furlong races on the card, which to me is a good thing. Let’s start from the top and go through it.

Race 1

Minor interest in SALISBURY KNIGHT if he sticks at something close to his 5-1 morning-line odds. His blinkers-on maiden win three back shows that he clearly has a much better race in him than the most recent start on his form, a one-turn Belmont mile, but the crowd being the crowd, it’s the most recent race that tends to carry the most weight. He appears to have been freshened and pointed to this spot, and the recent bullet workout might be a good sign.

Races 2-5, pick four

Thanks to 50-cent increments, the pick four is playable. A rough outline:
Race 2 – Using 2, 3, 4, 6, 8
Race 3 – Using 5, 6, 7 but leaning on 5
Race 4 – Using 2, 3, 5, 6, 8
Race 5 – 6 is a lone “A” but backing up with 1, 4, 7

Race 2 – I’d find it hard to narrow down opinions too fine in a New York-bred, $40,000 maiden claimer at six furlongs on dirt. There are some first-time starters that pique interest, as does the first-time-starting Cannizzo and the third-time-starting Kimmel. In fact, I only grudgingly include the “logical” favorite, KING GETTIGAN (#3)

Race 3 – MARK MY WAY (#7) is the chalk, and capable, but certainly doesn’t have to win even with a fair trip, and I lean to FREE MUGATU (#5). The former beat the latter in a one-turn, seven-furlong race, but FREE MUGATU has more upside today. FOREVER UTOPIA (#6), a maiden with a six-figure bankroll, is the potential lone speed.

Race 4 – No strong single opinion, though ICED OVER (#3) surely has been pointed to this spot since a first-turf breakthrough in his most recent start. I’ll try to weight the 5 between As and Bs, but it’s not easy.

Race 5 – Trainer Brad Cox off the claim is a good thing. Cox raising a horse $15,000 in claiming price off a claim is better. And Cox making that move in a very mushy-looking race is better still. The horse in question, WAGSON (#6) is 8-1 on the morning line and is worth a play straight at anything close to that price. The IMMORTAL EYES (#1) of last year would dust this group, but he’s been as dull in two recent starts as his trainer, David Jacobson, has been at the Saratoga meet.

Races 6-9, pick four
Race 6 – Using 3, 5
Race 7 – Spread far and wide
Race 8 – Using 2, 8, 10
Race 9 – Using 1, 4, 11 but leaning on 11

Race 6 – FUNKY MUNKY FEVER (#3) was 80-1 two races back in a similar spot. Those odds are long gone, but she’ll still be fairly priced here. She rallied into a tepid pace in an open starter race last time and should be closing into hot splits today. LADY KREESA (#5) is lightly raced and blinkers on with upside. Am against OLD HARBOR (#6), whose two big turf tries were one-turn sprints.

Race 7 –$40K N2L turf-sprint claimer = high degree of randomness. Spread as much as the bankroll permits.

Race 8 – Playing to have the ample pace factors fall apart late. Think UNBELIEABLE DREAM (#2) could be the right one, but using two other closers.

Race 9 – Front-running SENSE OF PEACE (#11) runs big numbers when things go his way, which makes the outside draw in a $20,000 claimer an ideal spot. I’d expect him to run to his better form provided he breaks alertly. Nos. 1 and 4 will be Bs on the late pick 4.

There’s a 30 percent chance of rain this afternoon, and all opinions here are predicated on fast dirt and the turf races staying on. Good luck.