Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Monday, Aug. 11

The good news: Clear skies are forecast all afternoon, which means few worries about racing suddenly getting taken off the turf after a pick-something sequence has started.

The bad news: Seven of the nine races are for claimers, which I suppose is not bad news if you like claimers. But when I saw the mere seven entrants in a conditioned claimer to open the card, I felt like I was looking at my home summer track, Arlington.

WHITHER JACOBSON

This is not a Todd Pletcher kind of card: He has but one entrant, and that in the restricted stakes, race 8. It is, however, a David Jacobson kind of card, and he tops all trainers with entrants in four races today, 1,3,5, and 6. At this point, it seems fair to wonder if Jacobson’s very slow Saratoga meet is going to turn around, and I’m not especially enamored of any horse he runs today.

That said, I will use #3 ROMANCING THE GOLD at least as an early pick four backup in race 3 and will do the same with #5 HILLSWICK in race 5. FOREST BOY, #6 in race 6, was dead on the board when making his East Coast and Jacobson debut two weeks ago. He finished a fading fourth there, but the barn still raises him from $50K maidens to $75K, and this is a soft-looking spot filled with pricey auction buys who have disappointed on the track.

PICK WHATEVERS

Kenny Peck has the late pick four covered here.

I think if you used #2 SWEET ACCLAIM and #3 WALK CLOSE in race 8, the Tenski, you’d cover it.

In race 9, one major pace factor, #2 SECRET OPS, and one minor, #9 EMPERORS RING, have been scratched. That leaves morning-line favorite #7 ETERNAL BULL as the potential controlling speed, yet I can’t help but think the horse is vulnerable today. He’s raced four times and, in his last two, was close in New York-bred maiden special weight races. When you consider the amount of money available for New York-breds running through allowance conditions, the move into a $40K maiden claimer today should raise at least a small red flag.

There’s not much money in it, but I’ll try to grind a little profit with a small play in the early pick four.

Race 2: New York-bred maiden 2-year-old turf sprinters, so I’m watching the tote and paddock for clues and using this race to spread and hope for a price.

Race 3: Like #5 MOE MAN best but also using #1 WEALTH TO ME as an A.
A: 1, 5
B: 6

Race 4: The favored Hushhushmushmush scratched. Be surprised if one of the three logicals -- #1 DOWNGOESFRAZIER, #7 CHASIN CHAMA, and #9 RONTOS NEW YORK -- doesn’t get the job done.
A: 1, 7, 9

Race 5: Tricky $25K sprint claimer that could wind up a fast-pace fall-apart race. Like the overall form pattern for #1 SEEKER, but does he like to sprint? If #2 BUCKEYE HEART just sits and waits along the rail, he could get a golden setup.
A: 1, 2
B: 5, 7

TURF CONDITION

Been a while since much rain, and the turf courses were playing fast fractionally and finally over the weekend. I’d downgrade anything today that shows positive form over courses rated good or worse: We want grass horses who like to hear their feet rattle.

CHANGING OF THE GUARD?

Noticed Joel Rosario was named on all three Chad Brown-trained entries today, replacing last-start rider Javier Castellano. Don’t know if this means much, but it’s mildly interesting.