Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga for Friday, Aug. 29

Sunny skies forecast all afternoon. Turf should remain firm, dirt fast – and Chad Brown’s horses all figure to take action. Brown is the name on every Saratoga player’s lips as he makes a run at unseating perennial leading trainer Todd Pletcher. If you’re playing him you’re getting a “hot” barn but dealing with potentially underlaid prices as the herd moves in lockstep.

Some short fields full of horses separated by hair’s breadths early on the card, and then some very tough bigger fields later in the day. I like horses with long odds in races 4 and 11, and think another one in race 7 might have a chance.

Here’s a race by race look at the program:

Race 1 – Would love to get involved in the pick five but this thing would make it messy from the start. $25K straight 3-year-old filly claimer with just a seven-horse field, and the only one without a chance is the lone true speed, FROM TIZ MOMENT ON (#7). Wanted to lean on APPEARANCE (#6) who gets off the rail for the first time in three starts and looks well meant, but in the end didn’t think she had any real edge on several others.

Race 2 – If GOLDEN STORY (#5) were trained by a big name you can bet the morning-line would not be anywhere near 3-1, and in any case the off odds probably will be at least slightly less than that. But regardless of barn, the rather abrupt drop from a first-level allowance to $25K conditioned claiming should throw up red flags. Not a very appealing start to the early pick four, really, and if I drop a ticket I will spread as wide as possible.

Race 3 – This race has scratched down to just six runners. It looks more manageable than the first two, and ONE MORE SONG (#4) is a horse one could actually like. She was given a ridiculous ride in her debut and before fading late showed a strong turn of foot when losing all the ground on the far turn. Blinkers and Lasix added for second-time starter AMAZING LITTLELADY (#2), and I have noticed over the years that trainer George Weaver’s high-priced maiden-claiming starters who show auction prices well over the claiming tag often perform well.

Race 4 – DESVELO (#4) is a very interesting horse at 12-1 on the morning-line. Unlike any others in the race he has run 1 ¼ miles several times and clearly can stay the distance. Dreadful last winter in his first starts since being imported from South America, he has turned things around for barn that sent a longshot winner last week. Two works since his third facing similar competition July 31 and between Sinorice, Conspiracy, and Village Warrior, the pace should at least be fair.

Race 5 – I could see making LADY KREESA (#4) a lone “A” in the pick four and pick five, though her apparent edge isn’t enough to simply single her. On the one hand she probably was farther off the pace than need be last out, but on the other, the race showed a filly who had won her maiden on the lead has developed sit-and-finish tactics. DEVIOUS MADDY (#7) might appreciate the return to turf and looks like the main danger.

Race 6 – This is a weird race. The 1, HERO FORCE, is a turf-debuting Louisiana-bred. The 2, BEAR TOUGH TIGER, has the look of a failed claim. The 3, FLASHLIGHT, has been dreadful in two North American starts and is running in the shortest race of his life. PARTLY MOCHA (#4) and JOE CAN GALLOP (#6) both are trained by George Weaver, race uncoupled, finished heads apart last time, and are first and second choice on the line – all of which makes my brow furrow. MISH MOSH (#9) gets a positive class hike from productive barn off a narrow win. Too many moving parts for my taste, though aforementioned FLASHLIGHT holds mild appeal as a bomb. Second-time blinkers and seems to want to go, go, go right now, so turn-back could work.

Race 7 – I would just play this race to fall apart, with four serious pace players lined up. STAR OF NEW YORK (#1), WON GREAT CLASSIC (#3), and even the ever-bet-against horse JETER (#4) all are eligible to pick up the pieces.

Race 8 – Second division (Race 5 was the first) of New York-bred filly and mare first-level allowance turf routers, and if you’re playing pick-whatevers, you better be prepared to spread. The 3-year-old stakes-dropping morning-line favorite here, TAKEOFF YOUR HAT, appears to hold a weaker position than a similar horse, Lady Kreesa, in race 5, and I don’t trust her at all. As for stand-alone plays or single-race exotic keys, I would consider THE TEA CUPS (#4) who has done nothing but rise in class since being claimed in February, and who has not seen a statebred race in as far back as her past-performances extend.

Race 9 – There will be some howling about the placement of a New York-bred 2-year-old maiden-special in the middle of the late pick four and the pick six. I think using ALEXANDRIE (#5), MY SUPER NOVA (#8), and MADOO (#9) might provide all the coverage one needs here, however.

Race 10 – GRANNY MC’S KITTEN (#5) can win but is going to be overbet with so many climbing aboard the Chad Brown train. Her last-start victory wasn’t exactly dynamic and I wouldn’t lean too heavily on her. FASHION FUND (#3) could use some pace she might not get here, but I thought her third in the Granny race was more impressive than the winner’s performance. MISS FROST (#2) is sharp and getting first run on the closers, but is a three-and-out candidate for regression. And PRAYED FOR (#1) is hustled right into a stakes off a winning two-turn route debut from which she could improve.

Race 11 – They’re not making this easy, are they? If I really wanted to feel good about hitting the cashing leg of all the late horizontal wagers I would use six horses, 1,2, 6,8,9,10. That, of course, is unwieldy beyond management unless you are carrying one of those super-sized money clips. The one that most intrigues me is GALROYALE (#1), who was claimed for $65,000 out of her last, where she finished well off a slow pace. Trainer Linda Rice has long been known for turf-sprint success and the guess is connections had this cut-back in mind when she was taken.