Hersh: How I'd play Saratoga on Friday, Aug. 15
To these eyes, it’s clear the second half of the card holds far more appeal than the first, and I’ll be focusing my action today there – the late pick four in particular.
Races 1 and 2 both have something I try to avoid playing – first-time starters at short prices. In race 1 BEBOB RAINDROP looks easily the best prepared for a very specific kind of race, a New York-bred 2-year-old maiden turf route, but the horse is 3-1 on the line and actually might go shorter. Taking that kind of number in a two-turn grass baby race seems imprudent.
The same sort of thing holds in race 2, another New York-bred 2-year-old maiden special, this one a dirt sprint. TIZQUICK and UPSTART both would be interesting in a big field at a decent price; instead, they’re respectively 9-5 and 2-1 on the morning line. No thanks.
Race 4, a second-level, nine-furlong filly and mare allowance with a $62,500 claiming option, seems like it should be more substantive than it is. I’m not playing, but I’m interested in seeing how STREET GIRL performs. She was quite good through the Breeders’ Cup, but what’s happened since? First time with Todd Pletcher and stretching out from a long sprint, and if she’s thriving, one assumes she’ll take some serious betting.
As for the late pick four:
Race 7 – A 9 1/2-furlong maiden special on a “good” turf course, and I’m spreading as wide as I can here. Somewhere on the ticket will be #1 TRECASTLE (a B or C, not an A), #2 DE FACTO, # 4 THROWBACK (B or C), #5 IRON WORKS (B or a C), #6 NORTHEAST BOUND, #8 DECISIVE EDGE (definitely an A), and #10 VASCO DE GAMA (A). Yes, that’s a lot of horses – it’s that kind of race.
Race 8 – This is the race that makes the sequence manageable. I like #3 TABREED and will use her as a lone A. She’s not going to be a big price, but she’s no odds-on shot either. She finished third in her lone Saratoga start last summer but closed well into slow fractions and should have much, much more speed at which to run today. Using #4, #5, and #6 as strict C backups.
Race 9 – Just a ton of speed in the Morrissey, but who can close? I’d like first time Bill Mott #2 SARATOGA SNACKS much better if he hadn’t drawn the rail. Looking at three from off the pace, #4, #6, and #7 as A’s, with #2 and #5 as B’s.
Race 10 – A skull-buster but I’m using just three horses. #7 OUTER ORBIT and #8 SULTRY WARRIOR will be “logical” short prices, but I like #2 KATE IS A TEN just as well – and she’s 20-1 on the morning line.