Hersh: How I'd play Pimlico for Friday, May 17, 2019

Thankfully, I have a couple opinions within the Pimlico Black-Eyed Susan pick four spanning races 8-11, because in a couple of the other races – the feature especially – I do not. Here’s a look at the sequence. (For more detailed accounts of all these races, see my Pimlico analysis available at DRF.com.)

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Race 8 – Miss Preakness

I have this as a “big three” sort of thing among (in the order of my selections) Never Enough Time (#6), Covfefe (#2), Fighting Mad (#11). The fly in this ointment is these and others in a race top heavy with pace could duel each other into tatters over a surface that so far this meet hasn’t been especially kind to speed. Therefore, three backups, two of the B variety, one C.

A: 2, 6, 11
B: 5, 7
C: 8

Race 9 – Hilltop

Very partial to the Chad Brown-trained French import Nova Sol (#2), whose overseas form slots in sweetly at this level. Usually we wonder how Europeans are going to transition to American racing and training. Mr. Brown has taken a lot of the wondering out of the equation. The one horse I fear is Orra Moor (#12). She’s been facing the best competition among those racing in America and brings a very grassy pedigree to her turf debut.

A: 2
B: 12

Race 10 – Pimlico Special

I can see getting bogged down here and using a lot of horses. Not my approach. Cordmaker (#6) is a late-maturing 4-year-old whose talents aren’t going to be fully appreciated in the betting. He’s got plenty of stay to his pedigree and my guess is the recent sharp 7f win will have him finely tuned for the 10f Pimlico Special. That said, I rate You’re to Blame (#13) close to the top pick. This horse got really good last year at 4, obviously stays the trip, and got in what seems like a very useful prep last out. Hoping he’s considered the Pletcher “B” team behind Rally Cry.

A: 6, 13

Race 11 – Black-Eyed Susan

When I did the selections and analysis for the card on Tuesday evening, I put Point of Honor (#8) on top. Point of fact – they make you select one horse on top in that process. She was a tepid top pick then and given more time to look at this race, I like her even less now. Probably would take Always Shopping (#6) on top were I to do the picks at this moment. Believe Brill (#7) is the “best” horse in this race, but despite a route-leaning pedigree, her two route races suggest a horse struggling to stay. Those, in any case, are the three As, with backups filling out both B and C slots.

A: 6, 7, 8
B: 2, 4
C: 3, 5

If you played all these numbers in the four races as a straight caveman ticket it runs you $84 per 50-cent wager. Depending on scratches and conditions (this is being filed Thursday night) I’ll use the A-B-C approach which, as outlined below, chops off $29 in cost. Other than the $1 all-A ticket, the rest are by 50-cent increments.

All As ($1) - $18
AAAB - $6
BAAA - $6
ABAB - $6
BBAA - $6
BBAB - $4
CAAA - $3
AAAC - $6

Total outlay - $55