Hersh: How I'd play Laurel Park on Saturday, Sept. 19

I’ll try two multirace wagers on the Laurel card, which features the $400,000 Commonwealth Derby (race 9) and the $200,000 Commonwealth Cup (race 4). The Derby is the third leg in an all-turf pick four (races 7-10) at which I’ll take a swing. I’ll also play the pick three ending on race 4, the Commonwealth Cup.

The Commonwealth Cup seems the more fraught of the two stakes races to me: MR SPEAKER (2) and UP WITH THE BIRDS (5) should easily be the two lowest prices on the board (and in horizontal bets), and I’ll use both of them as “As” while favoring neither and adding LEGENDARY (7) to the “A” roster. Legendary’s Arlington Million is a toss-out, he’s 1 for 1 on the Laurel course, and he should get first run on the two favorites. CUT TO ORDER (4) is way up in class but has blossomed lately, is a price, and has trainer Jamie Ness in his corner.

The sequence starts with a hard-to-love N1X allowance in which DELTA OUTLAW (8) looks like the less vulnerable of the two favorites, TEAM TIM (2) being the shakier of the pair. I actually like SIR ORONOCO (4) best, so will team him with Delta Outlaw as “As,” use Team Tim as a “B,” and toss in long-layoff comebacker TAKE ACHANCE ON ME (5) as a “C” while hoping perennial also-ran TWELVE STONE (6) doesn’t choose to finally break through today.

Race 3, a $5,000 N2L claiming sprint, has little substance. CHOCKLIT E CLARE (4) turned form around at Timonium last out, hinting at a return to Laurel best from 2014, and would be a boon at a price. O’REELEY (6) looks like she should win but never does, yet still makes it as an “A.” Even 5 1/2 furlongs might push the distance limits of lone backup INSPIRED VOYAGE (1).

Here’s a link to this play, $37 at the base $1 level, in DRF’s Ticketmaker Mobile format.

The late, all-turf pick four goes spread-spread-single-spread, the single being FORCE THE PASS (5) in race 9, the Derby. GO AROUND (1) appears to be the major danger but exits a lesser race on shorter rest and lacks Force the Pass’s turn of foot.

Very odd seeing Arlington ship-in AFTERMARKETSPOILER (5) at Laurel for race 7, a mere $15,000 N2L claimer, but her form is rock solid, the added half-furlong is a plus, she shows a bullet local work, and she’s not even being dropped in class. Yet the one I’d really like to get home is HEAVENLY ENCORE (7), who is totally unexposed in turf sprints and had trouble facing better going short two races back. Of the two with a Saratoga start in close-up past-performance lines (which is sure to attract betting) POP OF COLOR (6) is easier to stomach than long-layoff dropper JUSTLOOKATMENOW (12), though both are “Bs.” ARTFUL LADY (11) is 1 for 1 on the Laurel lawn and dropped to a better level after two Penn National starts following long break – “C” play.

In race 8, CATALACTIC (12) drops from stakes to $25,000 for Ness and Midwest Thoroughbreds, but that’s only back to the claim price paid in March. When last seen in Maryland (at Pimlico), he won convincingly at this very class. But LAST HEARTBREAKER (13) finished in front of Catalactic despite a rough post and trouble last out, was in way too tough two turf sprints ago, and could prove a nice kicker at double-digit morning-line odds. Heading three backups is DISCO ELVIS (10), who has come back around in his last two starts and has old form to be very competitive.

Taking the favorites MOON OVER PARIS (4) and JAHWHOL (9) as the “A” plays in race 10, an older maiden filly turf route. RAPID REPAIR (6) has contending turf form but appears to get one-paced with money on the line. Interest in long-layoff comebacker LAKE NATRON (7) is tempered by the gap in works.

Here’s the DRF Ticketmaker Mobile link to this play, $46 at the 50-cent level.