Hersh: How I'd play Kentucky Downs for Saturday, Sept. 7, 2019

I’m not a big 10-race maiden person (who is, I suppose), but the more I looked at LIFE MISSION (#5) in race 5, cashing leg of the early pick five Saturday at Kentucky Downs, the stronger I felt about his chances. Overseas last year, this horse ran into Ten Sovereigns, one of the fastest European colts of his generation, before finishing a fine second over this KD course in a rich stakes race at this distance. He then ran two perfectly fine races over wet turf he might not have loved and at route distances perhaps beyond his best, finishing off that form cycle with a pacesetting second behind Henley’s Joy, who won the $1M Belmont Derby this summer. Trouble in his 2019 debut; wide trip and didn’t stay 9f second time out; poor start at distance too short third time; and closing third at distance too short last time. Really think this is his day and will single him in a $168 pick five play (races 1-5) laid out below. Of course, getting to a single at Kentucky Downs is no easy task, and the first iteration of the ticket came in at $424, too rich for my blood.

Race 1

A: 3, 9, 10, 12
B: none
C: 2, 7, 11

Race 2

A: 7, 9
B: 6
C: 1, 3, 11, 13

Race 3

A: 5, 9
B: 4, 8, 12
C: 1, 7, 10

Race 4

A: 8
B: 2, 10, 11
C: 1, 4, 9

Race 5

A: 5
B: None
C: None

AAAAA: 3,9,10,12 with 7,9 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 = $16 ($1)
ABAAA: 3,9,10,12 with 6 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 = $4
AABAA: 3,9,10,12 with 7,9 with 4,8,12 with 8 with 5 = $12
AAABA: 3,9,10,12 with 7,9 with 5,9 with 2,10,11 with 5 = $24
ABBAA: 3,9,10,12 with 6 with 4,8,12 with 8 with 5 = $6
ABABA: 3,9,10,12 with 6 with 5,9 with 2,10,11 with 5 = $12
AABBA: 3,9,10,12 with 7,9 with 4,8,12 with 2,10,11 with 5 = $36
CAAAA: 2,7,11 with 7,9 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 = $6
ACAAA: 3,9,10,12 with 1,3,11,13 with 5,9 with 8 with 5 = $16
AACAA: 3,9,10,12 with 7,9 with 1,7,10 with 8 with 5 = $12
AAACA: 3,9,10,12 with 7,9 with 5,9 with 1,4,9 with 5 = $24