Hersh: How I'd play Keeneland for Saturday, Oct. 11
So much depends on the weather, really. It was wet Friday, supposed to be wet Friday night, and there remains a 50 percent chance of rain Saturday. The grass course already was yielding Friday; much more rain, and one could see all turf races but the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup getting moved to the main track. And what the main-track condition will be (fast unlikely, but everything else in play) also is unknown as this is written late Friday afternoon.
I find races 1-3 generally unappealing and still am surprised that this major racing venue with rich purses can draw such small fields, especially on a Saturday card. The first horse I’m interested in playing is a bomber in race 4, TSCHIFFELY, who is 20-1 on the morning line and could go higher. He showed nothing in his career debut, but I’m always willing to give a pass for sloppy-track first starts like his, and the trainer, Jose Fernandez, has done good work getting layoff horses ready for competitive performances at the nearby Calumet training track. At his price, Tschiffeley only has to finish in the top three to pay well.
Can’t find any solid ground with the older maidens in race 5, and race 6, on grass, is brutal without even taking course conditions into consideration. Not a single horse in the sixth has anything close to proven form over anything wetter than “good” going.
The late pick four starting with race 7 looks doable without a major investment. Here’s a caveman play for $16 at a 50-cent base bet:
Race 7: 1
Race 8: 5,7
Race 9: 2,6,7,8
Race 10: 1,4,7,11
Sarah Sis (#1) looks pretty good to me in race 7. She got too keyed up before the Arlington-Washington Lassie but still ran decently for second, beaten only by Quality Rocks, who was second this week in the Jessamine Stakes. Her debut was even sharper, and she looks quick enough to seize a clear early lead from the rail.
The very talented 3-year-old filly DIVINE BEAUTY (#7) returns from a long layoff in race 8. The thought is she’ll be just fine at the seven furlongs and is ready to roll. STREET GIRL (#5), a tank of a horse, is almost certainly going to benefit by turning back from nine furlongs to seven here.
Looking forward to the QE II Challenge Cup, race 9, I’ve been on CROWN QUEEN (#8) for a couple of months, took her on top, and like her, but wouldn’t lean too heavily in the pick 4. She scored only a narrow win in her stakes debut last out, but what impressed me was how she adapted to much different circumstances than she’d experienced in her blowout N1X allowance win the start before and still prevailed while up in class. I think she has more to give and hope she handles the going.
BALL DANCING (#6) is formidable if she doesn’t Euro-bounce in her second U.S. start, while her stablemate MINORETTE (#2) can better her Lake Placid run. SEA QUEEN (#7) might be a half-notch below but seems to go over wet ground well enough.
I’m against Personal Diary, Speed Seeker, and Aurelia’s Belle, but Sistas Stroll could outrun her odds and just won on soft. Daring Dancer wants it firm and might well be scratched.
Went against the stats in race 10 and took SILVERPOCKETSFULL (#11) on top, though trainer Ian Wilkes rarely wins with first-timers. Just liked the look of this horse’s work pattern and don’t see a lot to fear in the race. That said, there will be at least three others on a late pick four play, especially starting the sequence single-double.