Hersh: How I'd play Indiana Derby Day
So much for the hope that rain would stay away through Saturday and leave the turf portion of the Indiana Derby card alone. Nope. Indiana Grand is getting pounded again Friday, the $100,000 Ta Wee Stakes late in the card had to be taken off turf, and I think it is highly doubtful that grass racing will be conducted Saturday.
On turf in Race 1, I was going to play GOING BALLISTIC (#5, 12-1) to win and place and bet him in exactas, but if the race is rained onto dirt or run on a soft course, I will watch instead.
Race 2 is impossible. I was going to use it as the major spread in the early pick four, singling GLENARD (#4, 7-2) in the closing leg of the sequence and probably singling KISS MOON (#9, 8-5) in race 3. But both races 3 and 5 could wind up on the main track, in which case the pick four becomes uninteresting to me.
If race 3, the Indiana General Assembly Distaff comes off turf, KETEL TWIST (#2) looks like the right one. She won’t be anywhere near her 20-1 morning line on dirt but might be playable, depending on scratches.
The turf or off-the-turf races are now out of the way, but we hit the two older-horse dirt-route races, the Hulman George and the Schaefer, neither of which I like. But I do think the two following races, the Indiana Oaks and the Indiana Derby, are manageable and plan to play a pick four spanning races 6 through 9.
Race 6
A: 3,5,7
B: 1, 6
Race 7
A: 2,3,4
B: 5,7,8,9,10
Race 8
A: 1,6
B: None
Race 9
A: 2,6
B: 1,3,5
I view race 8, the Indiana Oaks, as having two horses far more likely to win than any others, AHH CHOCOLATE (#6) and OCEANWAVE (#1). I’ll see how the exactas with those two are coming back. Ahh Chocolate is likely to be an underlay in the win pool.
In the Indiana Derby, race 9, I’d like ISLAND TOWN (#6) at twice his 3-1 morning-line odds but can’t have him to win at anything close to that low. I’m against MR. Z (#1) today but will use defensively as a backup.