Hersh: How I'd play Gulfstream for Saturday, July 1
It’s a marathon, this Summit of Speed card at Gulfstream Park: First post is 11:55 a.m. Eastern, with the finale, race 14, scheduled to roll almost seven hours later, at 6:38.
The race placement is unusual, with several stakes clustered early on the program, a middle portion consisting mainly of lower-level claiming races, followed by all the richest stakes action on the card’s back end.
It’s there I’ll focus my play, in particular on the pick five spanning races 10 through 14, the first four of them stakes. The bet appeals to me because I like R Angel Katelyn (#7) most of any horse on the card, and while she’s the favorite to win the $75,000 Azalea, which starts the pick five as race, 10, she’s 2-1 on the morning line and would be a nice single to get home.
:: See Marcus Hersh’s pick five play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets
In fact, the plan is to keep the ticket as narrow as possible for the first four legs, in which I have fairly solid opinions, and spread as much as possible in race 14, a skullbuster in which I couldn’t possibly hang my hat on any single horse.
Race 11, the Carry Back, will have Three Rules (#3) as a favorite, and while I’m not convinced he’s getting back to his best today, he might not need to, and seven furlongs really is his trip. I will add a second “A” in Mo Cash (#4), who didn’t have a great trip last out while chasing home the older horse Quijote, a 4-1 shot in the Smile Sprint later on this card. Sweetontheladies (#5) looks a notch below the top two but will use him as a “B” backup.
I like Dearest (#3) best in the Princess Rooney, but she probably can’t take heavy pressure throughout and win, and that trip is possible. Kinsley Kisses (#11) gets the pressing trip and could be set to outrun her apparent form, while Lightstream (#8) ran a tremendous race in her lone start at Gulfstream, also at this seven-furlong trip.
Imperial Hint (#2) is the best horse in the Smile, but he could be a touch ring-rusty following a layoff, and he did miss the Golden Shaheen in Dubai after coming up with a problem after shipping. Worse, Delta Bluesman could make life miserable for him on the front end, and while I like Imperial Hint to emerge from that duel, Awesome Banner (#3) has learned to rate just enough to work out a great trip just behind the speed. Two “A’s” here.
Then – chaos. We’ll have to see if also-eligibles draw into the finale, a $10,000 turf-route claimer, since there are at least two of them who fit the spot. I see enough pace entered that the race should at least be honestly run, but this is almost certainly going to come down to trip and a horse stepping forward on the day. I’m just trying to get coverage.
Race 10
A: 7
B: none
Race 11
A: 3, 4
B: 5
Race 12
A: 3, 8, 11
Race 13
A: 2, 3
B: none
Race 14
A: 3, 6, 10, 11, 14
B: 8, 12
Ticket cost (50-cent) playing all “A’s,” “A’s” with one “B,” and “A’s” with two “B’s” = $63