Hersh: How I'd play Gulfstream on Saturday, Dec. 26
The strength of the Saturday card at Gulfstream lies on the back end, and we’ll get to that momentarily, but I do have one early opinion regarding race 4, the Grade 3 Sugar Swirl. STONETASTIC (#2) is kind of an all-or-nothing type of horse, dependent on making the lead. She’s never raced at Gulfstream Park, nor does the barn point to this meet, and really, there are only two races in her past performances that lay over this field.
Two horses drawn outside of her, BEST BEHAVIOR and, even more so, DOGWOOD TRAIL, appear to have speed to at least stick close. Put it all together, and the big favorite seems worth trying to beat. I’ll play the race to fall apart using the four off-the-pace types – YOU BOUGHT HER (1), MISS MELINDA (3), NAVAL COMMAND (6), and SKY GOLD (7) – in the exacta. I favor Naval Command and Sky Gold, the two longest prices, and will press those two either in more exactas, in a trifecta, or to win, depending on prices and scratches.
The late pick four, which includes the two featured Grade 3 grass stakes, looks appealing though challenging, and I’ll take a swing trying to narrow things down in the McKnight and the La Prevoyante.
RACE 8
This 2-year-old maiden mile has to be a spread. I have four A’s – WHEELS UP NOW (2), DANGEROUS BEND (6), ALL WORLD (9), RALLY CRY (10) – and five more B’s – TOUGHEST ‘OMBRE (4), ARCHANOVA (7), TALE OF MIST (11), LUCKY RAMSEY (12), and IT’S ALL RELEVANT (13), though the last of those would have to draw in from the also-eligible list. Clearly, 20-1 first-timer Dangerous Bend is the one I’d like to get home from the A list, and he does look live for trainer David Fawkes, who wins with firsters in longer races. Both Todd Pletcher horses, All World and Rally Cry, seem capable. Smaller budgets could try to live with just the four A’s.
RACE 9
Roman Approval is a nice horse in his own right, but his participation happens to ensure a fair pace for DA BIG HOSS (11), who ran a pretty nice race in the Breeders’ Cup Turf to maintain the excellent form he’s shown since being claimed. Stand alone with him as an A and back up with 20-1 morning-line shot MANCHURIAN HIGH (7), who rallied from way back to get third in the paceless 2014 edition of this race.
RACE 10
Ugh. Nearly every horse here entered under the claiming option, and I find most everything lacks appeal. What we do seem to see is a lot of early speed, with several horses stretching from sprints to this short route, and the only horse I think might be close early who makes the ticket is STORMY ROCIT (2). TETRADRACHM (1) is a rare Bill Mott claim, and the barn had this horse earlier in this career. BEST BARD (5) has clearly contending form but all at Woodbine, which has a totally different course configuration than Gulfstream Park. The one I like best, embarrassingly, is FILM MAKING (9), who never wins but is back on the right course at the right distance after experiments going short and long in his last two.
RACE 11
I’d not lean so hard on GOLDY ESPONY (12) here if she didn’t look like the only real speed in the race. If she backs up the pace and runs close to top form, she wins, but she’s been racing somewhat steadily (with decent breaks) since May, and we’ll back up with three horses. WALK CLOSE (3) might get the same kind of unfavorable race shape that hurt her last time in New York, but she still has room to grow. I suspect GOTAGHOSTOFACHANCE (4) can stick closer to the front than she did last time. And CAY DANCER (6), a stablemate of the top pick, could get first run on many and, from the look of her works, is sharp for her first start since the spring.
Race 8
A – 2, 6, 9, 10
B – 4, 7, 11, 12, 13
Race 9
A - 11
B – 7
Race 10
A – 1, 2, 5, 9
B -- None
Race 11
A – 12
B – 3, 4, 6
Ticket cost: $50 per 50-cent increment all As + As with one B.