Hersh: How I'd play Gulfstream Park on Saturday, Sept. 3

Six stakes, 13 races, a potentially top-class 2-year-old, and quite a bit of opportunity on the Gulfstream card Saturday.

Three Rules (#7), the unbeaten 2-year-old colt by Gone Astray, might be the shortest price of the day in the $300,000 Affirmed division of the Florida Sire Stakes, race 12. I have no interest in siding against him but will try to leverage what looks like a free space in the late pick four (races 10-13) into some kind of profit.

Here is a link to the $52 play in DRF’s invaluable TicketMaker (from which you can bet directly into your DRF Bets account). Obviously, Three Rules puts a ceiling on the bang for the buck, but if Awesome Banner (#10) can be beaten in race 10, the Prized division of the Florida Sire, and Daring Kathy (#1) doesn’t win the Wasted Tears Stakes, race 9, we might be onto something. I think both those things can happen. Awesome Banner is showing some holes and hasn’t worked since his loss at 1-20 odds in a similar spot Aug. 6.

In the case of Awesome Banner, I’m against him but not especially for anyone. I have four “A” plays in that leg of the sequence. In the case of the Wasted Tears, I don’t think Daring Kathy is getting the comfortable lead that flattered her last time, and her 6-5 price on the morning line suggests there will be widespread overreaction to that one race, which is better than her baseline in turf routes like this.

Here, I do like an alternative, Pink Poppy (#5), who was on the wrong ground in a tougher spot than this last out at Monmouth and hinted two back that she might actually be in peak form late this summer. She’s the lone “A,” with Daring Kathy and Kiss to Remember (#8), who will struggle to stay any distance longer than one mile, the “Bs.”

As for the final leg, there are several who look truly like no-hopers, and I’ll go seven deep (three As, three Bs, and one C), hoping All Hundreds (#10), while an A, doesn’t quite get there at what I expect to be considerably lower odds than his 7-2 morning line.

I’m interested in playing Pink Poppy straight in race 9, provided the betting goes something like the morning line forecasts. In race 3, you’re supposed to be against Cajun Delta Dawn (#2) if she’s the favorite in the $300,000 Susan’s Girl division of the Florida Sire, but she’s 3-1 on the morning line, and 8-5 favorite Sweet Tooth Haven (#7), while sharp on debut, is back on fairly short rest and probably destined for a pace battle. Food for thought.

Lochte (#2) at his best is the winner of race 6, the $75,000 The Vid Stakes, but he is back from an eight-month break with a work pattern that doesn’t blow one away and will be bet like he can’t lose. I can’t quite get behind anyone as a strong alternative, but caution would be advised if considering leaning on Lochte in horizontal or vertical exotics.