Hersh: How I'd play Delta Downs on Saturday, Nov. 21
Not especially enamored of any single horses at decent prices on the Delta Jackpot card, and the threat of rain Saturday also is cause for handicapping/bet-formulating pause. So, let’s take the obvious road here and dive into the all-stakes pick four spanning races 4-7 and landing on the $1 million Jackpot itself.
I think – and nearly everyone else will think – that LA APPASSIONATA (#6) in the Delta Princess, race 6, amounts to a free square. The thing about Delta is that the track can be tricky for outside shippers, but La Appassionata already has checked that square with a blowout win in her local prep for this race.
So, that’s one down with three to go – we’ll take a brief look at those races.
Race 4
A – 7, 8, 10
B – 1, 4
C – 2, 6
No strong opinions here, obviously, but for the DRF selector box, I picked it SEA VOW (#10), MICK (#8), and ROSE NEEDS A CHECK (#1). Going through the race again, I’ve made Rose a “B” and elevated G’S JOSH (7) to an “A.” G’s Josh beat Sea Vow last time, but my guess is that the latter is going forward Saturday, while the former will be fortunate to hold form. I tossed him in as a “C,” but I’m opposed to OUR RAPIDASH (2) at a short price in his Delta debut.
Race 5
A – 5
B – 1, 2, 7
C – none
RISE UP (#5) is the lone speed and the lone “A,” his 2-for-2 Delta record looming large in a battle with morning-line favorite and Delta debuter DEPARTING (#1). AGENT DI NOZZO (#2) has positive experience in this race, and COUGAR RIDGE (#7) has been going so well recently that I can’t leave him out, even as I suspect he won’t run to his best form.
Race 6
A – 6
B – None
C – None
Race 7
A – 4, 7, 9
B – 3
C – 1, 2, 5
Not a lot of proven quality beyond EXAGGERATOR (#9) for a million-dollar race. Exaggerator in my mind has to be used but has to be backed up, too, coming back in fairly short order after the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. I expect he’ll be heavily favored in the pick four, and maybe he’s just too good for this group, but I can envision many paths to defeat. I picked FOUND MONEY (#7) on top and would love to get him home at a decent price. Doug O’Neill already has shipped from Southern California to win two Grade 1 races with 2-year-olds this year, and he won the Jackpot in 2012 with Goldencents, a front-running sprint type who carried his speed around the Delta bullring, exactly what I could see happening with Found Money.
WHITMORE (#4) is a tricky read. He won by a pole while debuting at Churchill, but it’s possible that all the other “contenders” there didn’t run a step. Also, he was green in several manners in that race and can’t afford unprofessional behavior in this race. On the plus side, he seemed barely to be exerting himself while winning off, looks like a horse who should improve with distance, and the barn sent Far Right to this race for a very live showing last year. I don’t trust the New Yorker SUNNY RIDGE (#3) but think he has a better win chance than the Jean Lafitte Stakes one-two finishers, FOREVAMO (#1) and HARLAN PUNCH (#5), as well as East Coast shipper MEMORIES OF WINTER (2), the three “Cs.”
The ticket is $49 at the base 50-cent level, and I’ll punch the all-As $9 combination at least one more time. And finally, here’s a link to the play in DRF Tickemaker Mobile.