Hersh: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, Sept. 27

The early races are tough – so tough, I would have a difficult time getting seriously involved. The first is not just a difficult to decipher 2-year-old maiden race, it’s a difficult-to-decipher 2-year-old maiden race with 10 betting interests and 12 runners. All I can say is Todd Pletcher first-timer SAVOY STOMP better have quickness to get some early position breaking from the rail in such a bulky group.

Think two horses with poor last-out running lines, JOHN’S ISLAND (#2) and ALL MY MEMORIES (#3), have a chance in race 2, but not confident enough in either one to push a play. In the same vein, the favorites, NOBLE CORNERSTONE (#5) and ROUND (#8) both look unappealing at a short price.

Race 3 -- another big field of maidens. EPSILON (#2) took a lot of action in his debut and ran better than the bare seventh-place finish would suggest, but something like the 4-1 morning-line odds would not be appealing at all. Debuting ST. LOUIE (#1) is a much more robust 15-1 on the line and holds some appeal for an outfit that can win with first-timers in turf routes.

I suppose many will concede the Kelso, race 4, to odds-on ITSMYLUCKYDAY, but I’m not convinced he’s going to win. He won the Gulfstream Park Derby about 20 months ago around one turn, but all his subsequent success has come in two-turn races, and he never has raced at Belmont before. The two I think could take him down are RIVER ROCKS (#4), who might be “faster” enough than Bradester to seize a clear early lead; and GOLDEN TICKET (#2), who I liked more before watching the replay of his Sept. 5 win in the Left Bank. It wasn’t visually impressive, but Golden Ticket does show signs of being a miler who has too often been raced at longer two-turn trips.

I think most every dedicated horseplayer will be out to beat STOPCHARGINGMARIA (#3) in the Beldame, and if you happen to be a devotee, the price will seem right. I’m not, but at the same time, trainer Todd Pletcher has found yet another good spot for his filly. It’s older horses, but outside Close Hatches, Beholder, and perhaps Iotapa, the division is light, and this is a weak renewal of the race. BELLE GALLANTEY (#7) and FIFTYSHADESOFHAY (#5) get my vote, but neither will be priced attractively.

Right in the middle of all the stakes, a skullbuster of an second-level turf-sprint allowance, race 6. Can’t come up with much, but wouldn’t want any part of stakes-dropping, route-sprint runner TETRADRACHM, who’s 5-2 on the line.

The Flower Bowl is a nice race, but here again, I find it hard to develop a strong opinion. I do however feel like all the favorites – STEPHANIE’S KITTEN, ABACO, STRATHNAVER -- are vulnerable. VIVA RAFAELA (#3) should make an easy lead, and this 10-furlong distance probably is better for her than the 11 she ran last out at Saratoga. She has improved in her last couple, but I still have a hard time imagining her leading all the way in this group. TANNERY (#8) could be the one to fall into a perfect pressing trip, and unlike several here, this is a good distance for her. She left her race in the paddock in the Diana, becoming unsettled, but I don’t know what went wrong at Arlington. If you can forgive those two duds, she’s playable.

PALACE (#1) ought to get a great setup in the speed-filled Vosburgh, and if he runs back to his Saratoga form, he should make the most of it and win. At the same time, how many consecutive peak races does the horse have in him? Feel like this is asking a lot, but also not taking a major stand against the horse. PRIVATE ZONE (#7) did well to finish a close fourth last out in the Turf Monster at Parx considering the race was just a comeback prep; he broke slowly from the rail and got buried early; he’s a speed horse who was taken out of his game; and he’s not a grass horse. Think both he and HAPPY MY WAY (#6) could finish off a hot pace.

I’m a MAIN SEQUENCE (#5) fan, but his stock might be overvalued in the Turf Classic off consecutive narrow wins over less than elite fields. Granted, both performances were better than the sheer margin of victory, but he has poor gate habits and is a quirky sort. I took him on top, but others – as in, all others; even, perhaps, Medal Count – can win.

The Jockey Club Gold does not offer especially firm footing, either. I took it WICKED STRONG (#3) over ZIVO (#4) over TONALIST (#8), but MORENO (#11), V E DAY (#10), and even PRAYER FOR RELIEF (#5) and LAST GUNFIGHTER (#2) can’t be ruled out.

From this vantage point, singles and even doubles are difficult to find in any of the pick four sequences and especially in the pick five on this card, and my focus will be on occasional straight wagers and vertical rather than horizontal exotics.