Hersh: How I'd play Belmont on Saturday, Sept. 13

With seven of the 10 races carded for turf and the National Weather Service forecasting an 80 percent chance of rain sometime after noon, this Belmont card will turn on the weather. The forecast isn’t calling for heavy rain, and I’d guess even if rain does fall, the stakes, at least, are very likely to stay on turf.

The stakes are contentious and interesting, and the late pick four appears deserving of attention – it’s where I’d focus my energy and attention.

In the Noble Damsel, race 7, I prefer ANECDOTE (#6) but would also use TOKYO TIME (#5), JULIE’S LOVE (#8), and BAFFLE ME (#9).

Race 8, the Sands Point, is a Grade 2 in name only: The purse is $500,000, and the field is Grade 1-class. Again, as with the Noble Damsel, I think you have to spread to some degree here. DARING DANCER (#8) gets my vote as the “best horse” in the race, but there are two negatives: First, she has the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II at Keeneland next month as a major goal, and second, the filly prefers firm turf and might not get it.

A LITTLE BIT SASSY (#6) is slightly suspect at the distance but has appeal as something like the fourth choice in the race. It took Daring Dancer the length of the stretch to nail her at Saratoga, and A Little Bit Sassy has fired in every one of her route races. She’s a forward-running horse who doesn’t need the lead, and she’s likely to fall into a favorable trip. Also on the ticket will be SEA QUEEN (#5) who got too much of a fast pace last out at Del Mar and is better than that race, and BALL DANCING (#10), whose close fifth in the French Oaks ought to automatically put her in the conversation. I’m torn on whether to toss XCELLENCE in as a backup or leave her out. She’s not especially impressed in either of her U.S. starts but will be bet here as if that weren’t the case.

I’ll try to get through race 9, a 2-year-old maiden-special loaded with first-timers, with four horses: BOW TIE BOSS (#1), MIZUMI (#2), DAREDEVIL (#4), and BECAUSE I’M HAPPY (#8).

The play narrows in race 10, where I think GLOWING EMBER (#2) has a decent chance to wire the field at a good price. MOBRIDGE (#4) and MORNING CALM (#8) would be the backups.

Race 7
A: 6,8,9
B: 5

Race 8
A: 6,7
B: 5,10
C: 1

Race 9
A: 1,2,4
C: 8

Race 10
A: 3
B: 4, 10

That should keep the cost within a reasonable range. As for straight plays within the sequence, A Little Bit Sassy in race 7 and Glowing Ember in race 10 both would hold interest if the morning line proves out.

As for the earlier races:

Race 1: A crapshoot of an N1X turf allowance if you ask me. No opinion.

Race 2: Older maidens, short field, likely overbet Pletcher, no thanks.

Race 3: Maiden-claiming $40K turf route has some appeal, especially if you think the second-start drop for morning-line favorite PISCO BLISS (#6) is negative – and I do. The $115K sales buy was offered for $65K on debut and went one-paced all the way around. Its early, but the Ken McPeek barn, cold for the most part at Saratoga, has been frisky early in the Belmont meet. McPeek has OSTENTATIOUS ME (#11) here.

Race 4: PECORINO (#5) likely to be bet as a near-cinch, but I don’t know. The Pletcher barn doesn’t give anything away, and it dropped and lost the horse for $50K two back. His last two were on wet tracks, and his least-effective performance this cycle was his lone Belmont start. The 1 and the 7 both have possibilities.

Race 5: I made MAGNUM OPUS (#2) a DRF Gameplan spot play, though that assumes the value that might be present if he goes off at the 8-1 morning line. He struck me as potentially well suited to this seven-furlong grass trip. EBREEQ (#9) also held some appeal, but I wondered why he never got around to starting at Saratoga.

Race 6: $25K N2L turf claimers with a full field. Have at it – your guess is as good as mine.