Hersh: How I'd play Belmont Park for Thursday, June 4

Still waiting to see as of early Thursday morning whether races are on grass, and strongly suspect Belmont will stay on turf following what should have been a decent drying day and no heavy rain since Monday, though there were persistent light showers most of Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Gambling today will focus on RADIATOR (#13) in race 7, the Intercontinental Stakes, and to a lesser extent am interested in first-timer STRONG INCENTIVE (#7) in race 4.

RACE 1 – Tough start to pick five. Rail-drawn GROUND FORCE (#1) remains at double the claiming price paid this past winter, won at BEL with career-best performance almost exactly one year ago, but I couldn’t lean on him too heavily with much confidence. And after that, it’s something of a mishmash.

RACE 2 – SWEET WHISKEY (#3) is dropped into an allowance race after eight straight graded stakes starts, and her stretchout to two turns last out at CD probably was doomed from the start, but if I’m playing, absolutely have to be against her at anywhere near odds-on morning-line. Feels like she’s been tailing off since the Acorn a year ago. If one could run her out of win, the pick four would get off to a flying start.

RACE 3 – Some interesting horses in the Astoria. Pletcher debuts TONASAH (#5), and worth noting that the 2-year-old first-timers the last five years that Pletcher started out in stakes races went 3-2-1-0, the second-place finisher beaten less than a length. Hard not to notice the “never asked” short comment from W. Ward debut winner MOMENT IS RIGHT (#2), and SoCal ship-in DECKED OUT (#4) should appreciated added ground though she won her debut going away at a furlong shorter. Those three ought to cover it.

RACE 4 – There are several possibilities in this 3&up MSW but from here the most interesting of them is STRONG INCENTIVE (#7), who has taken quite some time to make the races after being a pricey 2yo-in-training purchase, but has put together an uninterrupted work pattern that includes some encouraging looking local drills. C. Brown shipped her directly from Florida to Belmont, no Saratoga training, as though this race might have been in mind for some time.

RACE 5 – Very tough start to second pick four, and will be spreading as wide as possible with a single in race 7. SHELDON (#6) has the Secretariat third last year as a high-water mark that could do here, but he showed so little in comeback run.

RACE 6 – Spreading again in NY-bred N1X. The high-last-out-figure horses all strike me as vulnerable.

RACE 7 - Loved RADIATOR (#13) jumped to graded stakes last out off KEE N1X allowance run better than its number, but then didn’t love her at all when the bandwagon got way too crowded and she was bet way below fair value. Have to come back to her on the cutback to seven furlongs, though, especially since the turf should have some give, and her KEE win came on soft. Looking back at her Euro form one gets the strong sense she’s a tricky horse, and my theory is that tracking a walking pace in the clear and without cover last time blew her mind. Think she wants to be covered up, come out late and make one run, and the drop back in distance gets her in a race with far more pace, which should lead to (theoretically) preferred trip. Price has to be way more right this time, doesn’t it?

RACE 8 – It’s gonna take six horses or so to give even the mildest sense of security in the cashing leg of late pick four, but that’s what the 50-cent increment is all about, isn’t it?