Hersh: How I'd play Belmont Park for Monday, May 25

Looks like several tricky races on this all NY-bred card. Not seeing any recent bias on turf or dirt, and prevailing conditions – fast and firm – should remain in play through last card of extended racing week. Few standouts in the stakes races, but plan to single KHARAFA in the late pick 4, and lean heavily on CHRYSOLITE to start off the early pick 4 and OSTROLENKA to end it.

RACE 1: Passing on this dirt-sprint MSW, though GOT WINGED (#4) seems way better than his last and possible value play. Most likely scenario is Pletcher-trained ONE SIDED (#5) graduating at 6-5 or so.

RACE 2: Think there is ample pace in the Mt. Vernon, turf-mile F & M stakes. CHRYSOLITE (#2) went through two distinct development patterns last year at 3. She wasn’t a precocious horse and didn’t get to preferred surface, turf, right away, and after moving far forward from spring to fall, think she was over the top by the end of the year. Comeback run has look of pure prep for this, and stablemate (not suggesting she’s a rabbit) will help fuel the pace. Lone A in first pick 4 and potentially playable straight. Using the other off-pace threats, UNBELIEVABLE DREAM (#5) and MAH JONG MADNESS (#6) as C's in pick 4.

RACE 3: Unappealing from a stand-alone perspective, and won’t trust any of the logicals in the pick 4. Using the Big Three, READTHEPROSPECTUS (#1), SARATOGA SNACKS (#4), and READTHEBYLINE (#5) as A's but want full coverage here, and with just six betting interests can get it.

RACE 4: Lack of quality and lack of clarity running neck and neck in this N1X F-M mile allowance. Have to say the 5-2's and 3-1's here look no more likely to me to win than the 8's and 10's. Only LIGHTNING LILY (#6) would be a real surprise, and spreading accordingly in pick 4.

RACE 5: OSTROLENKA (#2) went through a rough patch last winter but believe he’s really back now. Loves BEL, distance is great for him, and showing a BEL bullet since last. Inside draw the only negative, though seriously doubt he’s close to as high as 5-2 morning line. Backing up only with BATTLE OF EVERMORE (#3), who was shipped in from SoCal for NY-bred stakes and has potential as one-run one-turn closer behind hot pace.

RACE 6: Think SPIDER ROLL (#1) has grass potential exceeding the decent lone turf start (troubled) last year, and will play straight at anything close to 20-1 morning line.

RACE 7: Taking a second pick 4 swing here. QUEZON (#6) was better than these at 2, but things obviously can change from 2 to 3, and she’s back in stakes action without benefit of prep. Race shape could suit, and will use her as an A, but also including LAKESIDE SUNSET (#7) and TEMPER MINT PATTY (#10) as pick 4 A's. Lakeside Sunset was flattered when Irish Jasper won another open stakes at PIM last weekend and has worked fast since last. Temper Mint Patty’s career best came in lone BEL 7fs try, albeit over a wet track.

RACE 8: With an outside draw and over fast ground, KHARAFA (#9) should keep KING KREESA (#3) within striking range and have enough to hold off a run from old rival LUBASH (#6).

RACE 9: It’s definitely a pick 4 spread, but unlike the crapshoot race 4, I think one can tier this race. SAYTHREEHAILMARY’S (#2) is 4-2-1-1 at BEL and will handle the shorter trip. STAR GAZING (#4) seems loaded with upside today, though doubt she’s near 15-1 morning line. Draw a line through PICCOLO FLATS (#5) Aqueduct inner-dirt races and she’s on a three-race win streak, all by open lengths. Those are the A's, and would love to get one home, but three B's and two C's provide ample coverage, and relegating tepid 3-1 morning-line chalk CARAMEAWAY (#10) to C status. Just seems more exposed than several here with no apparent edge.

RACE 10: If lucky enough to get this far in pick four, will just try to live with the four most obvious horses in this $40K maiden-claiming turf sprint. Obvious, however, is nowhere near the same as trustworthy, and it will be no surprise if a horse that makes little sense on paper jumps up and wins this very soft race.