Hersh: Gulfstream Park late pick five for Saturday, Jan. 5, 2019
I’ll spectate the early portion of the Gulfstream card but plan to get involved beginning in race 7 with the late pick five. If neither of the two horses I use in the first leg of that bet wins, I’ll come back with a late pick four using the same pick-five horses in races 8-11.
I also plan to play race 9 on its own, focusing on Fair Grounds shipper MOON COLONY (#3) in the $100,000 Kitten’s Joy. HENLEY’S JOY (#9) will be the odds-on favorite, but while I respect him, Henley’s Joy doesn’t look invulnerable despite dominating a recent slightly lesser GP turf-route stakes race. There doesn’t appear to be a whole lot to Henley’s Joy as a physical specimen, and his form might owe as much to an early-developed competitive instinct married to a professional racing manner and a fair degree of athleticism.
Moon Colony, to my eye, travels more powerfully in his turf races, and while be beat a humdrum bunch last out at FG, he did turn in a 22.91-second final quarter-mile, which is pretty stern stuff by North American 2-year-old turf-route standards. MC was rank early in that race owing in great part to a walking pace, and the fractions here ought to be truer. He’s worked twice in South Florida for the Mark Casse barn, and while I don’t expect go get 8-1, something like 5-1 might be in range. Moon Colony is the only one I see beating the chalk, barring a sudden form drop, so I’ll back up a win play with a one-way exacta.
Race 9
$40 win #3 (Moon Colony)
$20 exacta #9 (Henley’s Joy) with #3 (Moon Colony)
I’ll try to quickly sort through the other four races in the late pick five.
Race 7 – Restricted stakes is a glorified N1X allowance, except favored FANCY DRESS PARTY (#3) already has cleared that condition. FDP is 2 for 2, both races on wet tracks in Kentucky, the first carded for dirt. She’s probably fairly limited on a grand scale but probably less so than most of the others here. One other entrant holds interest: LOVE MY HONEY (#5) lost all chance at the start of her last race and didn’t stay two turns two back after a very well-meant debut win at SAR. She could easily be the favorite’s equal.
Race 8 – This $30K N2L 1M turf claimer feels like more of a spread race, but I can’t find a lot of positives on most of the horses, especially shorter prices. Will try to get by with three. TAXMAN (#1) might not stay the trip – but he might. Excuses from last two. The 15-1 morning line on GIO DUDE (#4) makes no sense to me. That $50K starter comeback run last out seems like a prep for this dropdown. Perfectly capable on his best at this level. GET THE FACTS (#5) never was in for a tag racing in the Casse barn but is now spotted for action in this new outfit. Three grass works for this. Trainer does very well in several pertinent categories.
Race 9 – See above
Race 10 – I liked CODE OF HONOR (#4) to win the BC Juvenile (he was scratched with a reported fever), and if he runs to form, he comfortably defeats this group. Missed a possible target in the Remsen, and there are some negative vibes from his camp, but the work pattern is solid, and the race dynamics could really suit him. And if no COH, I’d have to use all except Gladiator King to feel covered.
Race 11 – 7.5-furlong two-turn 3yo MSW turf route closes the card and is very much a spread race for me. I’ll use seven – and still wonder if I’m missing the winner. If forced to guess at a top pick, it’d be BEE KEEPER (#10), but any of the pricier options would be just fine.
50-cent pick five play ($42)
Race 7: 3,5
Race 8: 1,4,5
Race 9: 3,9
Race 10: 4
Race 11: 3,4,5,6,9,10,12
50-cent pick four play ($21, if neither selection wins race 7)
Race 8: 1,4,5
Race 9: 3,9
Race 10: 4
Race 11: 3,4,5,6,9,10,12
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