Hersh: Gulfstream Park early pick four for Saturday, Jan. 26, 2019

Going to stick with a fairly modest “caveman” play for the early pick four (races 2-5) on Gulfstream’s Pegasus World Cup card.

The good thing is I really like a horse in the sequence. The bad thing is that horse is World of Trouble (#4) in race 3, and he’s listed at 6-5 on the morning line. With the late-breaking news that this race is coming off turf, his price is only going to drop.

Race 2 is a Fla.-bred N1X allowance with a $12.5K claiming option that skews much more heavily toward the claiming side. Souper Wish (#9) is the one with some real allowance chops but will be no worse than second choice. I wanted to fade the declining Fire Mission (#4), but he’s still got enough in the tank to contend at this level. The other three on the ticket all are listed at double-digit odds, and any of them would go a long way to making this pay.

Race 4 is a one-mile MSW in which, if you wanted to get spendy and had a longer-priced race 3 opinion, you could spread all over the place. My top choice would be Ranger Up (#13), who debuted at Tampa, my theory being TAP sent him there to get experience for the 3-year-old two-turn stakes series this winter should he prove that type. We’ll know more on that front today, but the wide draw is of no real concern in this one-turn mile, and he should come forward at the longer trip. Just three others and hope for the best – both C. Brown firsters and the Mott firster drawn on the rail but showing some encouraging drills.

The second sprint race in the sequence also has been taken off turf, and that totally changes the way the race looks. I’ll include the four horses who’ve shown any sort of dirt ability.

50-cent pick-four play (total cost: $40)
Race 2: 1,3,4,9,12
Race 3: 4
Race 4: 1,6,10,13
Race 5: 1,4,7,9