Hersh: Del Mar late pick five for Saturday, July 20, 2019

Solid sequence in the late pick five (races 6-10) today at Del Mar. Here’s a quick look at the races.

Race 6

Painting Corners (#4) would be my top selection in the Daisycutter, a five-furlong turf race. Toss the dirt flop last time, and while her good win two back came on the lead, she can stalk and pounce if – as seems possible – things get too wild up on the engine. The excellent S Y Sky (#3) is perfectly competent turf-sprinting, and it’s difficult to see her not being competitive. (Side note: I wouldn’t expect either of these horses to approach their morning-line win odds as multirace wager plays – both figure to be considerably shorter.) Finally, one-run closer A Little Bit Me (#6) beat the very good Morticia two races back and absolutely can win off that form.

Race 7

For what it’s worth, the Beyer Speed Figure par for this class level (Cal-bred 2-year-old maidens) is 65, and neither of the two here who have started – who happen to the first and second choices on the morning line – has come anywhere near that. I think first-timers BIG RETURNS (#6) and ONE FAST BRO (#3) look very live and will try to get one of those two home.

Race 8

The morning-line odds in the Grade 2 San Clemente seem suspect, and I wouldn’t trust them as a value guide. The top pick in a tough race would be Over Emphasize (#8), who has done nothing but good since being switched to turf three back, appears to have been kept fresh and pointed to this, and could appreciate the cutback from nine furlongs in the Honeymoon. Mucho Unusual (#3) eked out a 3-year-old-restricted N1X allowance-race win last time but might well have “needed” that comeback race and now is 2 for 2 on turf with stalking capabilities that could come in handy. Keeper Ofthe Stars is speed drawn on the rail in a race that appears to have a lot of other pace elements, but you can’t take lightly that she’s back with straight 3-year-olds after burying older second-level allowance horses. I’d never play MAXIM RATE (#9) at her listed 3-1 price but do think she has a decent chance to win.

Race 9

Back to the maiden ranks – and more morning lines that I don’t get. For one thing, it’s hard to see SAVE THE STORY (#5) being as high as 5-2 after running into the sharp Amalfi Sunset in her debut and finishing more than seven lengths clear of third. She’s one of three I’ll use, along with first-timers Hail on Hoofs (#2), who doesn’t look like a 20-1 shot to me off those quick drills, and Pure Xena (#6).

Race 10

Two deep to finish this off with an N1X turf-route allowance over one mile. All signs point to a fast, contested pace (multiple speed horses, including one drawn on rail and another pretty far outside, both of whom have to leave running), which would help mitigate the poor draw for Overdue (#10), who looks to me easily the most likely winner. He has, however, lost two in a row at this level while running well, so I will take Cajun Treasure (#6), a half-length behind the top pick on May 18, as a backup.

50-cent pick-five ticket: $72
Race 6 – 3,4,6
Race 7 – 3,6
Race 8 – 1,3,6,9
Race 9 – 2,5,6
Race 10 – 6,10