Hersh: Churchill Downs pick four for Friday, Nov. 27
RACE REPLAY IS NOT AVAILABLEI’ll try to hit the last pick four on the Churchill card today on a fairly budget-conscious ticket, and to do so, I’ve taken a stand in the Clark Handicap, where I’m all in on Todd Pletcher. Here’s a look race by race.
Race 9
A – 1, 2
B – 4, 5
C - none
Would really like to get WILLOW HILLS (2) home at a price. She’s got a great chance to improve second off the bench, and her top form from the summer puts her right there. HOUSE OF SOLE (1) is good right now but will have to relax behind horses from the rail for her best shot. The Bs are the two primary speeds in the field.
Race 10
A – 4, 5, 12
B – none
C – none
Have a pair of 10-1 morning-line shots in QUALITY BIRD (4) and WAYWARD KITTEN (5) picked one-two here. I’ve underrated SAHAM (12) before but won’t make that mistake again. It’s a tricky late-season course right now, and if I started spreading beyond this, too many horses would come into play. I think the pace will be fair.
Race 11
A – 9
B – 5
Sure, RACE DAY (9) could regress, but I’m guessing the other direction. He won the Fayette Stakes despite an uncomfortable trip and is drawn to get a much better journey her. Cross out his summer sag and his form lines would make him look more like a 2-1 shot here. PROTONICO (5) is a funky, quirky horse, but he seems to thrive at Churchill Downs and could surprise. EFFINEX can run well and still not win, as can KEEN ICE, and I’m drawing a line here.
Race 12
A – 2, 11
B – 12
C – 7
The Eddie Kenneally barn is low-ROI but high-percentage with maiden special weight to maiden-claiming droppers, and if I get to the cashing leg, it’s a winner I want as much as a price, and DICEY FLATS (2) looks to me like the most likely. THREAD OF LIFE (11) is another “logical” short price but, unlike Dicey Flats, already has gotten one look at this $50,000 maiden-claiming level. Second-time starter GALLEY BEACH (12) looks dangerous dropping in her second start, and I don’t want the other maiden special weight, LISA’S DREAM (7), to knock me out at a big price.
Ticket – $36 per 50-cent increment
Race 9: 1, 2 / 4, 5
Race 10: 4, 5, 12
Race 11: 9 / 5
Race 12: 2, 11 / 12 / 7